Kiekens et al. BMC Public Health (2022) 22:455
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-12738-4
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Exploring the mechanisms behind HIV drug
resistance in sub-Saharan Africa: conceptual
mapping of a complex adaptive system based
on multi-disciplinary expert insights
Anneleen Kiekens
1*
, Bernadette Dierckx de Casterlé
2
, Giampietro Pellizzer
3
, Idda H. Mosha
4
, Fausta Mosha
5
,
Tobias F. Rinke de Wit
6
, Raphael Z. Sangeda
7
, Alessio Surian
8
, Nico Vandaele
9
, Liesbet Vranken
10
,
Japhet Killewo
11
, Michael Jordan
12,13,14
and Anne‑Mieke Vandamme
1,15
Abstract
Background: HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) continues to threaten the efectiveness of worldwide antiretroviral therapy
(ART). Emergence and transmission of HIVDR are driven by several interconnected factors. Though much has been
done to uncover factors infuencing HIVDR, overall interconnectedness between these factors remains unclear and
African policy makers encounter difculties setting priorities combating HIVDR. By viewing HIVDR as a complex adap‑
tive system, through the eyes of multi‑disciplinary HIVDR experts, we aimed to make a frst attempt to linking diferent
infuencing factors and gaining a deeper understanding of the complexity of the system.
Methods: We designed a detailed systems map of factors infuencing HIVDR based on semi‑structured interviews
with 15 international HIVDR experts from or with experience in sub‑Saharan Africa, from diferent disciplinary back‑
grounds and afliated with diferent types of institutions. The resulting detailed system map was conceptualized into
three main HIVDR feedback loops and further strengthened with literature evidence.
Results: Factors infuencing HIVDR in sub‑Saharan Africa and their interactions were sorted in fve categories: biology,
individual, social context, healthcare system and ‘overarching’. We identifed three causal loops cross‑cutting these
layers, which relate to three interconnected subsystems of mechanisms infuencing HIVDR. The ‘adherence motivation’
subsystem concerns the interplay of factors infuencing people living with HIV to alternate between adherence and
non‑adherence. The ‘healthcare burden’ subsystem is a reinforcing loop leading to an increase in HIVDR at local popu‑
lation level. The ‘ART overreliance’ subsystem is a balancing feedback loop leading to complacency among program
managers when there is overreliance on ART with a perceived low risk to drug resistance. The three subsystems are
interconnected at diferent levels.
Conclusions: Interconnectedness of the three subsystems underlines the need to act on the entire system of factors
surrounding HIVDR in sub‑Saharan Africa in order to target interventions and to prevent unwanted efects on other
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Open Access
*Correspondence: Anneleen.kiekens@kuleuven.be
1
Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Clinical
and Epidemiological Virology, Institute for the Future, Rega Institute
for Medical Research, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article