Int. J. Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, Vol. 5, No. 1, 2012 29
Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
An analysis of inaccuracy in pipeline construction
cost estimation
Zhenhua Rui*, Paul A. Metz and Gang Chen
Department of Mining and Geological Engineering,
University of Alaska Fairbanks,
Duckering Building 418, P.O. Box 750708,
Fairbanks, Alaska, 99775, USA
Fax: +1-907-474-6635
E-mail: zhenhuarui@gmail.com
E-mail: pametz@alaska.edu
E-mail: gchen@alaska.edu
*Corresponding author
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate cost overrun of pipeline
projects. A total of 412 pipeline projects between 1992 and 2008 have been
collected, including material cost, labour cost, miscellaneous cost, right of way
(ROW) cost, total cost, pipeline diameter, pipeline length, pipeline’s location,
and year of completion. Statistical methods are used to identify the distribution
of the cost overrun and the causes for overruns. The overall average cost
overrun rates of pipeline material, labour, miscellaneous, ROW and total costs
are 4.9%, 22.4%, –0.9%, 9.1% and 6.5% respectively. The cost estimation of
pipeline cost components are biased except for total cost. In addition, the cost
error of underestimated pipeline construction components is generally larger
than that of overestimated pipeline construction components except total cost.
Results of analysis show that pipeline size, capacity, diameter, length, location,
and year of completion have different impacts on cost overrun of construction
cost components. [Received: May 26, 2011; Accepted: June 28, 2011]
Keywords: pipeline cost; cost overrun; cost estimation.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Rui, Z., Metz, P.A. and
Chen, G. (2012) ‘An analysis of inaccuracy in pipeline construction cost
estimation’, Int. J. Oil, Gas and Coal Technology, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp.29–46.
Biographical notes: Zhenhua Rui is a PhD candidate in Energy Engineering
Management and MBA student at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He also
received his Master’s degree in Petroleum Engineering from the same
university, in addition to his Master’s degree in Geophysics from China
University of Petroleum, Beijing. His current research is the Engineering
Economics of the Alaska In-state Natural Gas Pipeline.
Paul A. Metz is a Professor of Department of Mining and Geological
Engineering at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He received his PhD from
Imperial College of Science Technology and Medicine. He also received his
MS in Economic Geology and MBA from the University of Alaska. His
research interest include: market and transportation analysis of mineral
resources; analysis of transport systems; engineering geological mapping and
site investigation; mineral and energy resource evaluation.