Modelling PN4 classification among
Malaysian listed companies
Malcolm Smith
Leicester Business School, UK
Syahrul Ahmar Ahmad and Ahmad Shameer Mohamed
Thaheer
Universiti Teknologi Mara, Shah Alam, Malaysia
Keywords:zyxwvutsrqponmlkjihgfedcbaZYXWVUTSRQPONMLKJIHGFEDCBA corporate
failure, Kuala Lumpur
Stock Exchange, Practice
Note No. 4, Malaysia
Prior studies have demonstrated that simple linear discriminant
models can be highly successful in identifying financially distressed
companies, and therefore useful in predicting corporate failures.
Such models have been shown to be both industry and country
specific even though their variable selection has been narrow. These
models have remained incredibly robust over time despite variations
in the definition of the 'distressed' state employed for modelling
purposes. This paper extends such analysis to the main and second
boards of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) in Malaysia, with
particular reference to their designation of PN4 companies (those
classified as 'distressed' in accordance with Practice Note No. 4
introduced in February 2001). The findings of the study show that
a single discriminant model has high classificatory power for both
boards of the KLSE, and that the optimum model comprises financial
ratio variables common to other published models. Previous findings
are therefore shown to be substantially generalisable to a new
environment and to a different definition of distress.
Copyright© 2004
AsianReview of Accounting.
Volume 12, Number 2: 57-73
Extant literature has highlighted the usefulness of failure
prediction models to financial institutions, creditors, managers,
auditors, investors, academics, regulatory agencies and other
groups of financial statement users (Altman 1968; Dugan and
Zavgren 1988; Eidleman 1995). Accurate and reliable failure
prediction models provide an early warning system that
enables these groups of financial statement users to make more
effective decisions, and to evade or mitigate the costly effects
of bankruptcy.
In Malaysia, the classification of a specified group of
'distressed' companies with a PN4 designation, by the Kuala
Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE), suggests that there is a need
for a sound prediction model to identify those companies likely
to befall such a designation in the near future. Practice Note
57