Vol.:(0123456789) 1 3 Aerosol Science and Engineering https://doi.org/10.1007/s41810-022-00138-5 SHORT COMMUNICATION Efects of PM 2.5 and Meteorological Parameters on the Incidence Rates of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in the Upper Northern Region of Thailand Wichuda Singkam 1  · Nirote Sinnarong 1  · Kittawit Autchariyapanitkul 1  · Katesuda Sitthisuntikul 1  · Siwatt Pongpiachan 2 Received: 28 November 2021 / Revised: 18 February 2022 / Accepted: 24 March 2022 © The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy Sciences 2022 Abstract The research aimed to study the efect of ambient PM 2.5 and meteorological parameters on the incidence rates of COPD. The study, using the panel model, lasted for 7 years and covered eight provinces in the upper northern region of Thailand (January 2014–December 2020). The feasible general least squares (FGLS) for the heteroscedasticity were used to estimate all the parameters in the model. The study result showed that all PM 2.5 and meteorological parameters contributed to an increase in COPD cases. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or COPD, refers to a group of diseases that cause airfow blockage and breathing-related problems, including emphysema and chronic bronchitis (Mannino et al. 2002). We found that the average increase of PM 2.5 by 1%, would add an increased risk of COPD cases by 0.25% at a signifcance level of 0.10. Our study results also revealed that the average increase of temperature, humidity and hot spots by 1% would lead to the increased risk of new COPD cases by 0.42% at a signifcance level of 0.05. Moreover, a rise in the average of the lowest temperature in the provinces under the study by 1%, would increase the number of new cases of COPD by 0.92% at a signifcance level at 0.01. There were some challenges involved in investigating health impacts of PM 2.5 . This study demonstrated that evidence from the econometric panel data model provided valuable information for future eforts to prevent incidence of PM 2.5 disease. It is recommended that a more comprehensive program is needed to reduce the exacerbation rate of COPD. Keywords Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · PM 2.5  · Climatic change · Panel data model 1 Introduction Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a signif- cant public health problem worldwide, is characterized by irreversible and progressive airfow limitation associated with chronic and aberrant pulmonary infammation and pulmonary remodeling induced by the abnormal pulmonary response to inhaled noxious particles and gases or air pol- lution (Vestbo et al. 2013). In recent years, COPD has been a signifcant cause of global morbidity and mortality. It is predicted that it will become the third leading cause of death and the ffth global burden worldwide by 2020 (Barnes 2007). For decades, the most important causal factor for COPD has been cigarette smoking, yet only a few smok- ers (15–20%) eventually develop COPD (Lamprecht et al. 2011). Moreover, approximately 25% of COPD patients are non-smokers (Salvi and Barnes 2009). A multitude of epi- demiological studies have shown that ambient fne particu- late matter (diameter < 2.5 um; PM 2.5 ) was associated with increased morbidity and mortality of COPD (Zhao et al. 2019). Thus, it suggests that there are several factors that contribute to COPD development and progression. In recent decades, substantial epidemiological evidence has indicated that ambient particulate air pollution, including PM 2.5 , is becoming a crucial detrimental risk factor for COPD (Song et al. 2017). * Nirote Sinnarong nirote@mju.ac.th * Siwatt Pongpiachan pongpiajun@gmail.com 1 Faculty of Economics, Maejo University, 63 Sansai-Phrao Road, Nongharn, Sansai District, Chiang Mai 50290, Thailand 2 School of Social and Environmental Development, National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), 148, Sereethai Road, Klong-Chan, Bangkapi, Bangkok 10240, Thailand