ISSN: 2518-2021 (Print), 2415-4474 (Online) Fundam Appl Agric 2017, 2(3): 317-325 Fundamental and Applied Agriculture Journal homepage:www.f2ffoundation.org/faa Crop Modelling ORIGINAL ARTICLE Assessment of the effect of climate change on vegetative growth of major crops in Bangladesh using DSSAT Selina Banu 1 , Atikur Rahman 2* and A K M Adham 2 1 Department of Agricultural and Industrial Engineering, Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur-5200, Bangladesh 2 Department of Irrigation and Water Management, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh-2202, Bangladesh ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article history: Received: 25 September 2017 Received in revised form: 16 October 2017 Accepted: 07 November 2017 Available online: 20 November 2017 Doi: 10.5455/faa.278830 Academic Editor: Mohammed Mizanur Rahman A number of studies listed the potential consequences of climate change on crop agriculture and food security emanated from global warming, particularly in developing countries including Bangladesh. In this study, the effect of climate change on growth parameters of rice and non-rice crops was investigated. MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with observed climate data was used to generate Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario B2 and A2. Wheat, rice, and potato growth parameters were simulated using CERES-Wheat, CERES-Rice, and SUBSTOR-Potato models under projected change in future climatic conditions. Leaf area index (LAI), aboveground dry matter (ADM), and harvest index (HI) were found to be influenced by climate change. The effect of climate change was higher for wheat growth compared to rice and potato. The predicted change in crop growth parameters indicated the potential risk of food security in Bangladesh in the verge of increasing population and diminishing land resources. The results of this study can be used as a guideline to adopt climate change coping mechanisms to ensure future food security. Copyright © 2017 Banu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Keywords: Climate change MAGICC/SCENGEN model DSSAT model Leaf area index Harvest index Food security INTRODUCTION The consequence of climate change on crop production has been a matter of concern in many developing countries including Bangladesh (Roudier et al. 2011). Bangladesh holds a population of 162 million (BBS 2016) with a growth rate of 1.37% per year (SID 2010). The economy of Bangladesh depends on agriculture, extracting 18.7% of GDP and employing 47.3% of total labor force (BBS 2013). The major crops include rice (77%) jute (4.74%), wheat (2.5%), potato (3.07%), vegetables (2.45%), and others (10.3%) (BBS 2011). Due to climate change, erratic behavior and distribution of rainfall and rise in temperature, the major impacts would be on agriculture. Assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and various other studies listed the potential consequences of climate change. According to the reports, combined with the potential increase in global temperature, rainfall has become variable and unpredictable and the occurrence and strength of climate-related extreme events such as floods, droughts, heat waves, and cyclones are anticipated to increase in the future (FAO 2007; IPCC 2007). Taking 1990 as the base year, predictions made by IPCC show that the average global surface temperature might increase by 1 to 5°C by the year 2100 (IPCC 2001). In Bangladesh, temperature has been increasing for the last three decades, particularly during the monsoon season. The country is predicted to experience an increase in average day temperature of 1°C by 2030 and 1.4°C by 2050 (FAO 2007; IPCC 2007). Results from various other studies by simulation of models support the IPCC predictions and suggest that annual rainfall will increase in Bangladesh (Agrawala et al. 2003). However, most of the climate models estimate that precipitation will increase, but insignificantly, during the summer monsoon and decrease in the winter months of December through February. One of the biggest concerns of climate change is the potentially disastrous consequences on crop agriculture and food security in many parts of the world, particularly in the developing countries (FAO 2007; IPCC 2007; Mertz et al. 2009; WB 2010; Roudier et al. 2011). Analyses of multiple climate change scenarios indicate that climate change will likely have a slight to *Corresponding author: atikur.iwm@gmail.com