Integrated Sentinel Monitoring for the Northeast Region: Gap Assessment J. Runge 1 , M. Coté, Jr. 2 , B. Thompson 3 , J. R. Morrison 4 , D. Anderson 5 , I. Cetinić 6 , B. Cowie-Haskell 7 , S. Gallager 8 , J. Hare 9 , C. Johnson 10 , J. Salisbury 11 , R. Steneck 12 , R. Young Morse 13 1 University of Maine/ Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland,, USA, email: jeffrey.runge@maine.edu 2 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Boston, USA, email: cote.mel@epamail.epa.gov 3 Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection, Hartford, USA, email: brian.thompson@ct.gov 4 NERACOOS, Rye, USA, email: ru.morrison@neracoos.org 5,8 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, USA, emails: danderson@whoi.edu;sgallager@whoi.edu 6, 12 University of Maine/ Orono, USA, emails: ivona.cetinic@maine.edu ; steneck@maine.edu 7 Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary, Scituate, USA, email: ben.haskell@noaa.gov 9 National Marine Fisheries Service, Narragansett, USA, email: jon.hare@noaa.gov 10 Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, Canada, email: catherine.johnson@dfo-mpo.gc.ca 11 University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA, email: joe.salisbury@unh.edu 13 Gulf of Maine Research Institute, Portland, USA, email: rmorse@gmri.org ABSTRACT We address gaps in the Northeast Region’s capability to observe key biotic and abiotic ecosystem variables that are likely impacted by climate forcing. The need to observe effects of shorter-term and longer term climate and ocean variability on coastal ecosystems is especially acute in the Northeast, where water column temperatures have been rising at the rate of 0.1- 0.3 o C yr -1 over the past decade. First, there is a need for coordination of sentinel monitoring for pelagic and benthic properties that makes use of regional capacity for data management and distribution, quality control and integrated analysis. The broad definition of a sentinel is a critical ecosystem variable (whether an abiotic factor, process, species or community index) that is measureable and likely to be affected by climate change. At present, a sentinel monitoring program has been initiated in parts of the Northeast Region, for Long Island Sound and adjacent Canadian waters, but there is no organized sentinel monitoring of other regional coastal ecosystems, for example in the Gulf of Maine. The NERACOOS Strategic Plan calls for development of an integrated sentinel monitoring program across the Northeast; here we discuss steps to make that happen. Second, there is a need for information about critical variables not presently sampled by the existing observing systems. We explore strategies for collection of data on sentinel variables that either cannot be measured autonomously with existing instrumentation or require validation with samples collected in the field. These strategies include establishment of sentinel, fixed time series stations and eventual introduction of new measurement technologies. We outline the way forward involving consultation with federal and non-federal users and experts to create a science and implementation plan and a vision for integration of data into physical- ecosystem models and dissemination of information to the user communities. Key words: sentinel monitoring, climate change, benthic and water column properties, time series stations, modeling tools 1. INTRODUCTION AND HISTORY This White Paper addresses gaps in observing system capabilities to detect, assess and interpret effects of climate and ocean change on the health of coastal ecosystems in the Northeast Region. This theme is particularly relevant to the Northeast Region, which is experiencing rapid change in water column temperature, on the order of 0.1-0.3 o C yr -1 since 2004 1 . Surface water temperatures in summer, 2012, are 2-4 o C warmer than normal in the region. These recent warming trends are affecting regional coastal ecosystems. For example, the molt cycle of the American lobster, New England’s most valuable marine resource, is 2-4 months earlier in 2012, the likely consequence of exceptionally warm temperature of its bottom habitat. The early molting contributed to an unexpected glut of lobsters on the market, creating an economic crisis in Maine’s coastal fisheries. The warming is undoubtedly impacting the coastal ecosystem in other significant ways, but the Northeast Region does not have an organized regional plan in place to observe these changes. The gap assessment we provide here is likely also applicable to other regions under pressure from climate forcing. First, there is a need for a region-wide sentinel monitoring program for water column and benthic properties that takes advantage of regional capacity for integrated analysis and data management. Second, it is clear that a number of critical variables that may be changing cannot be observed by present capabilities in remote sensing and autonomous, in situ sampling platforms. The measurement of these variables will require collection and analysis of samples involving shipboard sampling where appropriate. Technological advances may allow autonomous measurement of some of these variables in the future, and resources may be well spent to develop this capability, but in the meantime “human-assisted” measurements at a limited number of shore or ship stations are needed to build essential time series.