The economic and institutional rationale of PV subsidies Bj € orn A. Sand en * ,1 Environmental Systems Analysis, Chalmers University of Technology, COMESA, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden Received 6 August 2003; received in revised form 26 March 2004; accepted 31 March 2004 Available online 10 May 2004 Communicated by: Associate Editor Ari Rabl Abstract In terms of cost and performance, infant technologies, such as solar photovoltaics (PV), are normally inferior to entrenched technologies. It is a Catch-22 situation since the diffusion on larger markets that would be needed to reduce cost is hindered by the high cost. Therefore it would make sense to subsidise PV to increase sales, which would increase experience and induce investments in larger factories, which in turn would drive down costs and the subsidies needed. The total costs of such a scheme does not have to be prohibitive if cost reductions with increased volumes are large enough. Over the last 20 years the cost of PV modules was reduced by 18–23% per doubling of cumulative production (a progress ratio of 0.77–0.82). For a progress ratio of 0.80 and an annual growth rate of 30%, the modelled annual subsidy peaks at $14 US billion, which corresponds to an additional electricity tax of no more than 0.1 US cents/kW h in OECD countries. A market support programme also creates institutional learning and increases the political power of the proponents of PV. The current federal German support programme is a product of learning and network for- mation in earlier market stimulation and research, development and demonstration (RDD) programmes of smaller scale. Hence, the current support programme is now likely to create not only economic virtuous circles that reduce costs, but also institutional virtuous circles that work for the survival and expansion of the programme itself. As the PV industry grows, care should be taken to maintain variety to reduce the risk of a premature lock-in of an inferior design. To maintain variety in the market place may prove costly when the market grows but variety creation at the level of RDD investments is fairly cheap. To increase the world expenditure on RDD of renewable energy technology by a factor of 10 would not cost more than $1 US/ton C or 0.02 US cent/kW h of electricity. Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Photovoltaics; Subsidy; Increasing returns; Lock-in; Climatic change; Technology policy 1. Introduction The expected growth of the world population to 9 or 10 billion towards the second part of the century and a continued economic growth will immensely increase the demand for energy services. At the same time, the car- bon dioxide emissions inherently linked to current fossil fuel energy technologies need to be reduced substantially over the century to ‘‘prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’’ (UN, 1992). As a consequence, there will be a tremendous need for development and large-scale diffusion of a range of new technologies for conversion, storage, transport and effi- cient use of energy. Depending on CO 2 -concentration target and the rate at which the energy intensity of the economy is assumed to decrease, most scenario-makers suggests a need for new capacity that can supply energy in the range of 200,000–400,000 TW h/year towards the end of the century, as compared to the world energy supply of about 120,000 TW h in the year 2000 (BP, 2002; WRI, 2000). * Tel.: +46-31-772-8612; fax: +46-31-772-2172. E-mail address: bjorn.sanden@esa.chalmers.se (B.A. Sand en). 1 Formerly Bj€ orn A. Andersson. 0038-092X/$ - see front matter Ó 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.solener.2004.03.019 Solar Energy 78 (2005) 137–146 www.elsevier.com/locate/solener