Citation: ALrfai, Mohammad
Motasem, Danilah Binti Salleh, and
Waeibrorheem Waemustafa. 2022.
Empirical Examination of Credit Risk
Determinant of Commercial Banks in
Jordan. Risks 10: 85. https://
doi.org/10.3390/risks10040085
Academic Editor: Krzysztof Jajuga
Received: 7 March 2022
Accepted: 30 March 2022
Published: 14 April 2022
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risks
Article
Empirical Examination of Credit Risk Determinant of
Commercial Banks in Jordan
Mohammad Motasem ALrfai *, Danilah Binti Salleh and Waeibrorheem Waemustafa
Tunku Puteri Intan Safinaz School of Accountancy, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok 06010, Kedah, Malaysia;
danilah@uum.edu.my (D.B.S.); waeibrorheem@uum.edu.my (W.W.)
* Correspondence: mohammad_motasem@oyagsb.uum.edu.my or mohammadalrfai92@gmail.com
Abstract: The current research aims to examine the credit risk determinants in Jordan’s banks.
Macroeconomic factors were included to examine credit risk in commercial banks by adopting the
balanced data for the examination between 2008–2019. The result shows that credit risk relates to
foreign direct investment (FDI) and the output gap. The relation existed since FDI helped the country
create job opportunities, increase administrative efficiency and capacity, and work to exchange
technologies, ideas, opinions, and human resources, especially in emerging economies. The output
gap relates to CR by the ability that borrowers’ cash inflows are reduced when growth slows or turns
negative, making it harder for them to meet the interest and principal of bank loans in exchange,
especially in markets that have the potential to decrease the output gap. The result specified that
as remittance (REMIT) grows, credit risk considerably accelerates, and the same effect was also
recognised for public debt (DEBT). The outcomes revealed an important influence of tax on personal
income (TAXINC). The examination result proves that credit risk is affected by several factors, which
may relate significantly to implications as expected.
Keywords: credit risk; non-performing loans; Jordan; macro-economic
1. Introduction
The stability of the financial sector is critical for every country’s economic progress.
The global economic crisis (GFC) of 2008–2009 was a threat that directly affected global
financial stability. Internal and external risks like ineffective managers, bad regulation,
and economic difficulties, to name a few, may have an impact on the banking sector’s
essential role (Naili and Lahrichi 2022; Tehulu and Olana 2014). Considering the impact
of various types of risks, credit risk (CR) is regarded as the first type that can jeopardise
a bank’s survival and financial stability (Caruso et al. 2021). The GFC has recently paid
more attention to non-performing loans (NPLs) by regulators and commercial banks since
it threatens the bank’s stability and can lead to bank failure (Naili and Lahrichi 2022; Ghosh
2015). This form of risk is rooted in the conventional role of banks, which is essentially to
provide credit.
According to Caruso et al. (2021), a bank’s earnings are most often shaped by the
interest on the bank’s money that is lent. Banks should ensure consumers’ ability to repay
the amount owed as well as the loan interest, which can be a difficult process and may not
always be as fruitful as estimated. Furthermore, according to a recent study, macroeconomic
considerations have had the greatest influence on NPLs since 2008, and the macroeconomic
climate is currently the most widely reflected determinant of NPLs (Manz 2019; Us 2017;
Katuka 2017).
Lately, there has been a growing interest in investigating NPLs, as the rising ratio of
NPLs is viewed as the primary reason for financial crisis and breakdown (Adebola et al.
2011). The banking sector in Jordan is recognised as the nation’s largest and strongest sector,
contributing over 20% of the country’s GDP in 2019. The banking sector remains stable and
Risks 2022, 10, 85. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks10040085 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/risks