Introduction
TherecenteconomicrecessionsexperiencedinNigeria(firstin2016andexitedin2017andwentback
torecessionin2020)deservesresearchattention.Areremittanceflowspartlyresponsibleforthepattern
ofgrowthandtherecenteconomicrecessioninthecountry?
Foreigncapitalsareimportantsourcesoffinancingeconomicgrowth,especiallyincountrieswherethe
foreignexchangegapislargerthanthedomesticinvestmentgap.Remittanceshaveinrecentyears
becomeanimportantsourceofforeigncapitalflows.Thisisevidentinthe2020worldbankmigration
anddevelopmentbriefwhichindicatesthatglobal(andlowandmiddleincomecountries[LMIC])
remittanceflowwasexpectedtodeclinebyapproximately20percent(19.7percent)in2020duetothe
covid19pandemicinducedeconomicdownturn.However,remittanceflowsweretippedtobecome
moreimportantsourceofforeignfinancingasforeigndirectinvestmentwasexpectedtodeclineby
more than 35 percent (World Bank, 2020; Karimo, 2020).Therefore, remittance flows could have
importantimplicationsforsavingsandinvestment,therebyaffectingeconomicgrowth.Forinstance,an
increase remittance inflow could contribute to economic growth by increasing consumption
expenditureandaggregatedemand,savings,andinvestment(Meyer&Shera,2017).
Abstract
Thestudyexaminedtheimpactofremittancesonmacroeconomicfluctuation(recessionandrecoverystates)
ofNigeriaeconomy.Thestudyusedannualdatacoveringtheperiod1985to2020andestimatedaMarkov
timevaryingtransitionprobabilitymodel.Remittancehadapositivesignintherecessionandrecoverystates
ofNigeriaeconomy,butstatisticallysignificantonlyintherecessionstate.Furtheranalysisrevealedthat
foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)andforeignportfolioinvestment(FPI)inflowswerenegativeandstatistically
significantintherecessionstate.Thestudythereforeconcludethatremittanceinflowisprocyclical,thatis,
increasedinflowsofremittancesreinforcesrecession,whileFDIandFPIarecountercyclical,implyingthat,
increasedinflowsreversesrecessionandsettheeconomyonthepathtorecovery.Thestudyrecommended
policyeffortsatprovidinginfrastructure,fightinginsecurityetctoattractFDIandFPIduringrecessionsto
taketheeconomyoutofrecession.
Keywords:Remittances,Macroeconomicfluctuation,Asymmetricapproachforeigndirectinvestment
(FDI),foreignportfolioinvestment(FPI)
RemittancesAndMacroeconomic
FluctuationInNigeria:
AnAsymmetricApproach.
1 2
Dr.NATHAN,Emmanuel andOMEJE,Danjuma
and nathanemmauel98@yahoo.com danjumaomeje@gmail.com
DepartmentofEconomicsFacultyofSocialSciences,
NigerDeltaUniversity,BayelsaState,Nigeria
76
1
JournalOfContemporaryResearchInEconomicsAndDevelopmentStudies(JCREDS)
APublicationOfTheDepartmentOfEconomics,RiversStateUniversity,PortHarcourt
www.economicdeskjournals.net
ECONOMICDESKJOURNALS
Jan. - Mar., 2022
01
Volume-1, Issue-01, Pg.01-11