The impact of transmission dynamics of rabies control: Systematic review Waranya Rattanavipapong a , Montarat Thavorncharoensap b,c , Sitaporn Youngkong b,c , Anne Julienne Genuino b , Thunyarat Anothaisintawee a,b,d , Usa Chaikledkaew b,c , Aronrag Meeyai b,e,⇑ a Health Intervention and Technology Assessment Program (HITAP), 6th Floor, 6th Building, Department of Health, Ministry of Public Health, Tiwanon Road, Muang, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand b Health Technology Assessment Postgraduate Program, Mahidol University, 447 Sri-Ayuthaya Road, Phaya Thai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand c Social Administrative Pharmacy Excellence Research (SAPER) Unit, Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, Mahidol University, 447 Sri-Ayuthaya Road, Phaya Thai, Ratchatewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand d Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Ramathibodi Hospital, 270 Rama VI Road, Phaya Thai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand e Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, 420/1 Ratchawithi Road, Phaya Thai, Ratchathewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand article info Article history: Available online xxxx Keywords: Rabies Prevention and control Vaccine Transmission dynamics Mathematical model Systematic review abstract The public health and economic burden of rabies has led to major intersectoral initiatives worldwide to reduce its burden. Over the last decade, the impact of rabies prevention and control programmes in real- world settings has become increasingly evident, especially in countries where most rabies exposures and deaths occur, but they have yet to successfully eradicate rabies due to limited access to health care ser- vices. We aimed to systematically review published transmission dynamic modelling studies of rabies in both humans and dogs with a focus on studies which estimated the epidemiological and economic impact of different preventive measures. The findings are intended to inform the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) to improve programmatic feasibility and clinical practice in rabies. Medline and Scopus were systematically searched for peer-reviewed articles which were published up to 14 th June 2017. In addition, studies identified from a meeting of the WHO Expert Consultation on Rabies on 26–28 th April 2017 in Bangkok, Thailand were added, resulting in 19 articles which were included in the review. Results from the disease modelling indicated that the basic reproduction number was low (less than 2 in all but one study). All studies found that rabies control through canine vaccination was likely to be effective in terms of reducing the incidence of rabies in dogs and/or humans, with most studies suggesting 70% annual coverage was adequate. Vaccine coverage, dog density and birth rate were identified as crucial factors influencing the effectiveness of the interventions. In conclusion, the findings from this review suggest that rabies control through canine vaccination is likely to be effective in reduc- ing the incidence of rabies. Vaccine coverage, dog density and canine birth rate were identified as critical factors influencing the effectiveness of vaccination interventions. Ó 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 1. Introduction Rabies, a zoonotic disease caused by the rabies virus, is one of the most feared infectious diseases and a significant threat to pub- lic health especially among underserved populations in Africa and Asia [1]. Hampson et al estimated in 2015 that canine rabies causes approximately 59,000 human deaths annually worldwide (95% CIs: 25,000-159,200), with the vast majority of these in Africa (36.4%) and Asia (59.6%) [2]. In response to the rabies threat, the World Health Organization (WHO) together with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and the Global Alliance for Rabies Control (GARC) have established a global goal to reduce human rabies deaths to zero by 2030. To achieve this goal, there is a clear need to understand the characteristics of rabies endemicity as well as the effectiveness https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.11.035 0264-410X/Ó 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). ⇑ Corresponding author at: Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Mahidol University, 420/1 Rajvithi Rd., Rajthevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. E-mail address: aronrag.coo@mahidol.ac.th (A. Meeyai). Vaccine xxx (xxxx) xxx Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Vaccine journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/vaccine Please cite this article as: W. Rattanavipapong, M. Thavorncharoensap, S. Youngkong et al., The impact of transmission dynamics of rabies control: Sys- tematic review, Vaccine, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.11.035