J.Mech.Cont. & Math. Sci., Vol.‐7, No.‐2, Januaryy (2013) Pages 1056‐1066 1056 FORECASTING PRODUCTION OF FOOD GRAIN USING ARIMA MODEL AND ITS REQUIREMENT IN BANGLADESH By 1 Lasker Ershad Ali, 2 Masudul Islam, 3 Md. Rashed Kabir and 4 Faruque Ahmed 1 Mathematics Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna-9208, Bangladesh 2 Statistics Discipline, Khulna University, Khulna-9208, Bangladesh 3 Department of Mathematics, Pabna Science & Technology University, Bangladesh 4 Department of Mathematics, Jahangir nagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh Abstract. We forecast the food grain requirement and its production in Bangladesh. Before forecasting, we examine different methods and find time series model i.e. ARIMA model in different order predict accurate values. Then we used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast the future amount of food grain in different years in this study. For the accuracy checking, we take the difference between the actual amount of food grain in a specific year and the predicted or the forecasting amount of the food grain in that year. Keywords and phrases : forecast, food grain, production, ARIMA model ¢hj§aÑ p¡l (Bengali version of the Abstract) h¡wm¡−c−n M¡cÉn−pÉl fË −u¡Se£ua¡ Hhw Cq¡l Evf¡ce pÇfÑ −Ll Bjl¡ f§hÑ¡i¡p ¢c−u¢R z f§ hÑ¡i¡p −cJu¡l B−N Bjl¡ ¢h¢iæ fÜ¢a−L fl£r¡ L−l¢R Hhw L¡m£e - p¡¢l ¢eZÑu L−l¢R z AbÑ¡v ¢h¢iæ œ²−jl −r−œ ARIMA j−Xm¢Vl p¡q¡−kÉ p¢WL j¡−el i¢hoÉà¡e£ L−l¢R z Hlfl Bjl¡ ü-fË¢aNje N¢an£m Ns−L (ARIMA ) j−X−ml p¡q¡−kÉ ¢h¢iæ hR−l i¢hoÉ−a M¡cÉnpÉ La f¢lj¡e m¡N−h a¡l f§hÑ¡i¡p fËp−‰ ¢hQ¡l ¢h−hQe¡ L−l¢R z p¢WLa¡ fl£r¡l SeÉ HL¢V ¢eÑ ¢Ÿø hR−l M¡cÉn−pÉl h¡Ù¹h f¢lj¡e La Hhw −pC hR−lC M¡cÉn−pÉl f¢lj¡−el i¢hoÉà¡e£ Abh¡ f§hÑ¡i¡p La ¢Rm a¡l f¡bÑLÉ−L NËqZ L−l¢R z ISSN 0973-8975