Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Forest Ecology and Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests Eric Andreas Thurm a, ⁎ , Laura Hernandez b , Andri Baltensweiler c , Szegin Ayan d , Ervin Rasztovits e , Kamil Bielak f , Tzvetan Mladenov Zlatanov g , David Hladnik h,i , Besim Balic j , Alexandra Freudenschuss k , Richard Büchsenmeister k , Wolfgang Falk a a Bavarian State Institute of Forestry LWF, Dep. Soil and Climate, Germany b INIA-CIFOR, Spain c Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Dep. Forest Resources and Management, Switzerland d Kastamonu University, Faculty of Forestry, Dep. of Silviculture, Turkey e NARIC – Forest Research Institute, Hungary f Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Dep. of Silviculture, Poland g Institute of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Bulgaria h University of Ljubljana, Biotechnical Faculty, Dep. of Forestry and Renewable Forest Resources, Slovenia i Slovenian Forestry Institute, Slovenia j Faculty of Forestry in Sarajevo, Forest Management and Urban Greenery, Bosnia and Herzegovina k Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Dep. Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW), Austria ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Thermophilic Rare species Species distribution models Climate-soil models Site index models Winners & losers Northward shift Biogeographical regions ABSTRACT This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies). We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 °C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate. We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48°N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies. The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conserva- tion policies. 1. Introduction Forests cover 33% of the European land area and 96% of this area is managed and contributes to the supply of the resource wood (Forest Europe, 2015). Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. are two of the most common tree species in boreal and temperate European forests (Köble and Seufert, 2001) with high economic relevance especially for the timber industry (Eurostat, 2018). Nevertheless, several studies https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.08.028 Received 20 April 2018; Received in revised form 10 August 2018; Accepted 13 August 2018 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: thurm@lrz.tum.de (E.A. Thurm). Forest Ecology and Management 430 (2018) 485–497 0378-1127/ © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. T