ORIGINAL ARTICLE Cyclicity and variability in prey dynamics strengthens predator numerical response: the effects of vole fluctuations on white stork productivity Jan Hus ˇek • Peter Adamı ´k • Toma ´s ˇ Albrecht • Jaroslav Cepa ´k • Wojciech Kania • Eva Mikola ´s ˇkova ´ • Emil Tkadlec • Nils Chr. Stenseth Received: 25 April 2012 / Accepted: 22 January 2013 / Published online: 28 February 2013 Ó The Society of Population Ecology and Springer Japan 2013 Abstract Theory predicts that optimality of life-long investment in reproduction is, among other factors, driven by the variability and predictability of the resources. Similarly, during the breeding season, single resource pulses characterized by short periods and high amplitudes enable strong numerical responses in their consumers. However, it is less well established how spatio-temporal dynamics in resource supplies influence the spatio-tempo- ral variation of consumer reproduction. We used the common vole (Microtus arvalis)—white stork (Ciconia ciconia) resource—consumer model system to test the effect of increased temporal variation and periodicity of vole population dynamics on the strength of the local numerical response of storks. We estimated variability, cycle amplitude, and periodicity (by means of direct and delayed density dependence) in 13 Czech and Polish vole populations. Cross-correlation between annual stork pro- ductivity and vole abundance, characterizing the strength of the local numerical response of storks, increased when the vole population fluctuated more and population cycles were shorter. We further show that the onset of incubation of storks was delayed during the years of higher vole Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10144-013-0366-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. J. Hus ˇek (&)  N. Chr. Stenseth Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, Blindern, PO Box 1066, 0316 Oslo, Norway e-mail: jan.husek@bio.uio.no P. Adamı ´k Museum of Natural History, na ´m. Republiky 5, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic P. Adamı ´k Department of Zoology and Laboratory of Ornithology, Faculty of Science, Palacky ´ University, trˇ. Svobody 26, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic T. Albrecht Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Kve ˇtna ´ 8, 60365 Brno, Czech Republic T. Albrecht Department of Zoology, Charles University in Prague, Vinic ˇna ´ 7, 128 44 Prague, Czech Republic J. Cepa ´k Bird Ringing Centre, National Museum, Hornome ˇcholupska ´ 34, 102 00 Prague, Czech Republic W. Kania Ornithological Station, Museum and Institute of Zoology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Nadwis ´lan ´ska 108, 80-680 Gdan ´sk, Poland E. Mikola ´s ˇkova ´ Agency for Nature Conservation and Landscape Protection of the Czech Republic, Be ˇlehradska ´ 1308/17, 400 01 U ´ stı ´ nad Labem, Czech Republic E. Tkadlec Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Palacky ´ University, trˇ. Svobody 26, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic E. Tkadlec Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Studenec 122, 675 02 Kone ˇs ˇı ´n, Czech Republic 123 Popul Ecol (2013) 55:363–375 DOI 10.1007/s10144-013-0366-5