A New Algorithm for the Sensivity Analysis of Critical
Path in Pert Networks Considering Project Risk
M.T. Taghavifard
*
& S. Khezri
Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard, Associate Professor, College of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabatabai University
Shaghayegh Khezri, MS in Industrial Engineering
Keywords
1
ABSTRACT
Taking into account the uncertain time duration for each activity in
a pert network, we would need to accept the notion that the critical
path the project could vary a number of times during its execution. If
this variations take place frequently during the project in an
unpredictable manner, it could endanger the efficient managment of
the project and in addition to lengthening the time frame of
execution, it would result in financial burden.The objective of this
article is to present an algorithm that potentially prevents the
occurance of unpredictable events in the critical path. Using the
proposed algorithm, after the identification of risk in each activity
and the quantitative and qualitative analyses of the activities,we
calculate the respective time durations considering the different
events that could carry potential risk for the purpose of risk
management. Furthurmore, a parameter called MVC identifies an
interval and if the related activity duration falls in that interval, the
critical path would be changed.Then through the techniques of
Enginerring Economy and Decision Making, conclusions are drawn
to whether allow the critical path to undergo variation under
anticipated situation or not.
© 2014 IUST Publication, IJIEPM. Vol. 25, No. 1, All Rights Reserved
*
Corresponding author. Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard
Email: dr.taghavifard@gmail.com
May 2014, Volume 25, Number 1
pp. 57-72
http://IJIEPM.iust.ac.ir/
International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Management (2014)
Critical Path,
Pert, Sensitivity Analysis ,
Risk