ORIGINAL ARTICLE A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways Hermann Lotze-Campen 1,2 & Peter H. Verburg 3 & Alexander Popp 1 & Marcus Lindner 4 & Pieter J. Verkerk 4 & Alexander Moiseyev 4 & Elizabeth Schrammeijer 3 & John Helming 5 & Andrzej Tabeau 5 & Catharina J. E. Schulp 3 & Emma H. van der Zanden 3 & Carlo Lavalle 6 & Filipe Batista e Silva 6 & Ariane Walz 1,7 & Benjamin Bodirsky 1 Received: 22 April 2016 /Accepted: 23 April 2017 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2017 Abstract Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodi- versity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio- economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Hermann Lotze-Campen lotze-campen@pik-potsdam.de Peter H. Verburg peter.verburg@vu.nl Alexander Popp popp@pik-potsdam.de Marcus Lindner marcus.lindner@efi.int Pieter J. Verkerk hans.verkerk@efi.int Alexander Moiseyev alexander.moiseyev@efi.int Elizabeth Schrammeijer bep@messd.org John Helming john.helming@wur.nl Andrzej Tabeau andrzej.tabeau@wur.nl Catharina J. E. Schulp nynke.schulp@vu.nl Emma H. van der Zanden emma.vander.zanden@vu.nl Carlo Lavalle carlo.lavalle@jrc.ec.europa.eu Filipe Batista e Silva filipe.batista@jrc.ec.europa.eu Ariane Walz ariane.walz@uni-potsdam.de Benjamin Bodirsky bodirsky@pik-potsdam.de 1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 2 Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany 3 Environmental Geography Group, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HVAmsterdam, The Netherlands 4 European Forest Institute, Yliopistokatu 6, 80100 Joensuu, Finland 5 LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, PO Box 29703, 2502 LS The Hague, The Netherlands 6 European Commission DG Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi, 2749-TP 272, I-21027 ISPRA, VA, Italy 7 Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, 14476 Potsdam-Golm, Germany Reg Environ Change DOI 10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8