Do people ‘‘personally experience’’ global warming, and if so how, and does it matter? Karen Akerlof a,b, *, Edward W. Maibach b,c,1 , Dennis Fitzgerald d,2 , Andrew Y. Cedeno e,3 , Amanda Neuman e,4 a Department of Environmental Science & Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA b Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA c Department of Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA d Department of Psychology, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA e New Century College, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA 1. Introduction Experience is the best teacher, it is said. The consequences of risks that we can see, hear and feel – the sting of a bee, a cut from broken glass, or a burn from time in the sun – create memorable impressions that shape individuals’ subsequent behavior, and in their retelling, even that of others (Marx et al., 2007). Direct experience of climate change – inarguably a greater individual and societal threat than the previous three examples – is constrained by individuals’ difficulties in detecting its effects amid the normal variation of daily weather (Marx et al., 2007; Moser and Dilling, 2011; Weber, 2010; Weber and Stern, 2011). However the range of increasing impacts from climate change offers the possibility that individuals may recognize other signals less subject to everyday variability, such as shifts in species distribution, and the onset and length of the growing season. If individuals are able to personally experience adverse effects of climate change, those encounters should result in heightened recognition of its dangers, according to psychological literature on information processing (Weber, 2006). Yet physical environmental conditions are not the only drivers of perception. Perceived experiences of global warming can also be influenced by social environments, including culturally conveyed interpretations of how global warming will manifest. As evidence, cultural world- views are predictive both of perceptions of environmental changes (Goebbert et al., 2012), and risk, including climate change (Kahan, 2012; Kahan et al., 2007, 2011b). Global Environmental Change 23 (2013) 81–91 ARTICLE INFO Article history: Received 9 January 2012 Received in revised form 29 July 2012 Accepted 31 July 2012 Available online 29 August 2012 Keywords: Climate change Global warming Survey Experience Risk perception ABSTRACT For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county’s adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people’s open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people’s perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction. ß 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. * Corresponding author at: Department of Environmental Science & Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA. Tel.: +1 703 282 1289. E-mail addresses: kakerlof@gmu.edu, karen.akerlof@gmail.com (K. Akerlof), emaibach@gmu.edu (E.W. Maibach), dennisefitzgerald@gmail.com (D. Fitzgerald), acedeno@masonlive.gmu.edu (A.Y. Cedeno), aneuman@masonlive.gmu.edu (A. Neuman). 1 Tel.: +1 703 993 1587. 2 Tel.: +1 703 220 1711. 3 Tel.: +1 703 221 6324. 4 Tel.: +1 443 632 4683. Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Global Environmental Change journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gloenvcha 0959-3780/$ – see front matter ß 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.07.006