American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2014, Vol. 2, No. 4, 185-192
Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajams/2/4/2
© Science and Education Publishing
DOI:10.12691/ajams-2-4-2
New Proxy of Financial Development and Economic
Growth in Medium-Income Countries: A Bootstrap
Panel Granger Causality Analysis
Khalil Mhadhbi
*
Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Tunis
*Corresponding author k_mhadebi@yahoo.fr
Received April 11, 2014; Revised June 11, 2014; Accepted June 12, 2014
Abstract This paper examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth for 27
medium-income countries in the period 1970 to 2012. We develop a new proxy for financial development that refers
to the input of real resources into the financial system and apply the panel bootstrapped approach to Granger
causality. The results show, for three countries the findings support strong evidence on supply-leading hypothesis
which implies that financial development induces economic growth and for six countries the findings support strong
evidence on demand-following. Our results confirm for twenty one countries suggesting that their financial
development does not depend on economic growth.
Keywords: causality, financial development, economic growth, bootstrapping, panel data
Cite This Article: Khalil Mhadhbi, “New Proxy of Financial Development and Economic Growth in
Medium-Income Countries: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Analysis.” American Journal of Applied
Mathematics and Statistics vol. 2, no. 4 (2014): 185-192. doi: 10.12691/ajams-2-4-2.
1. Introduction
Economists hold opinions of the role of finance in
economic growth and the developed theoretical literature
mirrors the divisions. The question of whether or not
financial development affects economic activity has
attracted a lot of attention in previous and current research
(Kirkpatrick, 2000; Ang, 2008; Murinde, 2012). Bagehot
(1873) and Hicks (1969) argued that financial system
played a critical role in igniting industrialization in
England by facilitating the mobilization of capital for
“immense works.” Schumpeter (1934) emphasized the
importance of the banking system in economic growth and
highlighted circumstances when banks can actively spur
innovation and future growth by identifying and funding
productive investments. With the contributions of
McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973), the relationship
between financial development and economic growth has
been an important issue of debate, and during the last
thirty years these studies have fostered a fresh research
interest in this relationship. Recent empirical studies,
however, offer contradictory evidence (Kaminsky and
Reinhart, 1999; Deidda and Fattouh, 2002; Wachtel, 2003;
Favara, 2003; Rousseau and Wachtel, 2011and Arcand et
al., 2012).
In addition, the direction of causality still remains
divisive. In summary, three schools of thought are
identifiable in the extant literature: supply-leading
response school of thought which argues that financial
development leads to economic growth pioneered by
Schumpeter (1911) and confirmed by notable studies such
as Rajan and Zingales (1998), Levine et al., (2000) and
Bittencourt (2012); demand-leading school of thought
supported by studies such as Odhiambo (2004), Liang and
Teng (2006) and Zang and Kim (2007) and Odhiambo
(2008) which argues that growth leads to financial
development; and bidirectional school of thought
grounded by the studies such as Wood (1993),
Demetriades and Hussein (1996), Akinboade (1998),
Luintel and Khan (1999), Rousseau and Vuthipadadorn
(2005) and Apergis et al., (2007) which submits that there
is a bidirectional causality between financial development
and economic growth. This shows that a consensus on the
role of financial development in the process of economic
growth does not so far exist.
Unfortunately, there is no simple procedure to
determine which view is empirically adequate – not even
one that would rule out some views as obviously false.
First, the factors that govern economic growth admittedly
include many others besides financial development, and
interactions among them are likely to prevail. Second,
mutual causation, which in economic growth may be the
rule rather than the exception, makes it difficult, if not
impossible, to rule out a specific hypothesis. Third, the
existing data on financial development are plagued by
poor reliability and dubious validity. Thus, the existing
econometric studies do not really rule out any of the main
hypotheses; significant results can be cited for any of them.
Consequently, the current verdict on the relationship
between financial development and economic growth and
their causality has remained inconclusive. However, the
discussion focuses on measures of financial development,
which must move literature because most authors only