Risk perception, crop protection and plant disease in the UK wheat sector Brian Ilbery a,⇑ , Damian Maye a , Julie Ingram a , Ruth Little b a Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of Gloucestershire, Oxstalls Lane, Longlevens, Gloucester GL2 9HW, UK b Department of Geography, The University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK article info Article history: Received 19 February 2013 Received in revised form 27 August 2013 Keywords: Risk Uncertainty Plant disease Crop protection Control Resistance UK wheat sector abstract While plant diseases have been the subject of scientific research, little is known about the perceptions of key actors towards plant disease risk within specific food sectors. Drawing on concepts of risk and uncer- tainty, and using in-depth interviews, this paper examines the ways in which endemic plant disease risks in the UK wheat sector are perceived and managed by key ‘upstream’ and ‘downstream’ businesses, as well as by farmers and agronomists. A majority of interviewees feel that plant disease is a controllable risk and one that rests mainly at the point of production (i.e. with farmers) within the wheat sector. This assumed ‘control’ is based mainly around the availability of plant protection products (e.g. fungicides) which reduce the sense of risk attributable to outbreaks of plant disease. As a consequence, there can be a tendency to grow higher-yielding wheat varieties that are less disease-resistant. The potential ban- ning of certain fungicides under EU legislation and climate change are perceived future threats that could increase uncertainty and change the balance between ‘control’ and ‘resistance’, the latter through the use of more disease-resistant wheat varieties. Further research is needed on the perceived impacts of plant diseases and on how different wheat sector actors will contribute to the future control of plant diseases and the development of more integrated systems of plant disease management. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Plant disease risks Plant and animal diseases represent a significant and growing threat to food supplies (Waage and Mumford, 2008; Lucas, 2010; Mills et al., 2011; Ilbery, 2012; Kirwan and Maye, 2013; Maye and Kirwan, 2013). While considerable scientific research has been conducted on the potential threat of plant diseases to food produc- tion (e.g. Strange and Scott, 2005; Gregory et al., 2009; Strange and Gullino, 2010; Chakraborty and Newton, 2011), very little is known about the perceptions of key decision makers in different agricul- tural sectors towards the potential impacts of plant diseases. Exist- ing research tends to focus on the perceptions of farmers and growers, but it is also important to examine other key sector ac- tors’ views and priorities (Drew et al., 2010). This is because of their potential role in disease transmission and the significant, but usually hidden, perspectives they might hold on the manage- ment and impacts of plant diseases on food supplies. Pest outbreaks have been known to cause up to 15% losses in global crop production (Strange and Scott, 2005) and to decimate non-food crops (Potter et al., 2011). According to Waage and Mumford (2008: 865), biosecurity problems are getting worse ow- ing to globalisation and, more specifically, to ‘growing trade, travel, transportation and tourism’. Attempts to manage the possible risks from plant diseases have focused on preventing and controlling invasive and ‘exotic’ rather than indigenous and ‘endemic’ patho- gens (MacLeod et al., 2010), despite the fact that the latter can dec- imate large areas of agricultural production (Mills et al., 2011). The management of, and protection against, endemic diseases has, like food supply governance more generally, effectively been privately regulated and the prevailing socio-technical regime for commercial crops is essentially market-based. There is, for instance, minimal government surveillance of unregulated endemic plant pests and pathogens. It is mostly an industry matter and self regulated, with industry-led trade agreements and market structures in place to try and discourage bad practice among producers that might create ‘plant health risks’ (Wilkinson et al., 2011: 1936). The focus of this paper is very much on endemic diseases as it attempts to examine the ways in which plant disease risks in the UK wheat sector are perceived and managed by key sector ‘actors’. This is necessary because the wheat sector operates within an environment of risk and uncertainty, and global wheat prices en- tered a period of unprecedented volatility between 2007 and 2011 (Ghosh, 2010: 76; Wamae et al., 2011); this volatility has continued ever since. Indeed, the wheat sector functions within a rather fragile context of managed risk, where the threat of disease is ever present but chemically controlled. More specifically, the 0016-7185/$ - see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.09.004 ⇑ Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: bilbery@glos.ac.uk (B. Ilbery), dmaye@glos.ac.uk (D. Maye), jingram@glos.ac.uk (J. Ingram), ruth.little@sheffield.ac.uk (R. Little). Geoforum 50 (2013) 129–137 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Geoforum journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/geoforum