Global Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics.
ISSN 0973-1768 Volume 12, Number 5 (2016), pp. 3895-3916
© Research India Publications
http://www.ripublication.com/gjpam.htm
Modelling Childhood Disease Outbreak in a
Community with Inflow of Susceptible and
Vaccinated New-born
Timothy Kiprono Yano
1*
, Oluwole Daniel Makinde
2
and David Mumo Malonza
3
1
Department of Mathematics, Pan African University Institute for Basic Science,
Technology and Innovation, P.O. Box 62000, Nairobi, Kenya.
2
Faculty of Military Science, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X2, Saldanha
7395, South Africa.
3
Department of Mathematics, Kenyatta University, P.O. Box 43844 Nairobi, Kenya.
*Correspondence Author:
Abstract
This paper investigates the transmission dynamics of a Childhood disease
outbreak in a community with direct inflow of susceptible and vaccinated
new-born. Qualitative analysis of the SEIR nonlinear model is performed for
disease free and endemic equilibria using the stability theory of differential
equations. The disease free state is found to be both locally and globally
asymptotically stable when the vaccination reproductive number
v
R is less than
unity. In addition, the model exhibits transcritical forward bifurcation
phenomenon and the sensitivity indices of the vaccination reproductive
number with respect to various model parameters is determined. Using the
Adomian decomposition method (ADM) and the fourth order Runge-Kutta
integration scheme (RK4), the semi-analytical and numerical solutions of the
nonlinear model are obtained. Pertinent results are displayed graphically and
in tabular form. A vaccination coverage threshold is obtained above which the
disease will be effectively eliminated from the community.
Keywords: Childhood diseases; Epidemiological model; Vaccination
coverage; Forward bifurcation; Sensitivity indices; Adomian decomposition
method; Runge-Kutta integration scheme.