A new model of tropical tree diameter growth rate and its application to identify fast-growing native tree species Henrique Ferraco Scolforo a , Jose Roberto Soares Scolforo b,⇑ , Claudio Roberto Thiersch c , Monica Fabiana Thiersch d , John Paul McTague a , Harold Burkhart e , Antonio Carlos Ferraz Filho b , Jose Marcio de Mello b , Joseph Roise a a Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, 2820 Faucette Dr., Campus Box 8001, Raleigh, NC 27695, United States b Department of Forest Science, Federal University of Lavras, Campus Universitário, Campus Box 3037, LEMAF, 37200-000 Lavras, Minas Gerais, Brazil c Department of Environmental Science, Federal University of São Carlos, Campus Universitário, Rodovia João Leme dos Santos, Km 110 - SP-264, 18052-780 Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil d Department of Administration, Federal University of São Carlos, Campus Universitário, Rodovia João Leme dos Santos, Km 110 - SP-264, 18052-780 Sorocaba, São Paulo, Brazil e Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 310 W Campus Dr, Campus Box 169, Blacksburg, VA 24061, United States article info Article history: Received 21 February 2017 Received in revised form 20 June 2017 Accepted 21 June 2017 Keywords: Atlantic forest biome Stand density Exponential model Restoration abstract The Atlantic forest biome in Brazil possesses many suitable tree species for cultivation and restoration purposes. This biome was the most rapidly and extensively exploited forest type in Brazil and it displays areas ill-suited for eucalyptus cultivation. Since tropical tree species usually do not form growth rings and long-term growth data are still not available in Brazil, this study addressed a new approach to diameter growth rate estimation. The approach was developed in order to alleviate the shortage of species-specific growth information for the Atlantic forest biome. The two reasons for developing the approach were: (1) the possibility of increased ecological and economic diversification of plantation forests beyond eucalyp- tus, and (2) the potential to identify suitable tree species for restoration programs in the biome. Either reason requires growth models with sound biological properties. The data used in this study came from 20 native forest fragments and included six tropical tree species. Forest inventory to assess forest growth was first conducted in 2003, while the re-measurement was conducted in 2008. A non-linear exponential model, containing an asymptote parameter as a function of stand density, was fit to estimate tree species diameter growth rate for each of the six tree species in the study. Additionally, based on the exponential model, a formulation of the time required for each tree species to reach a given diameter was developed. The fitted models exhibited high variability among the six tree species, but they performed well with respect to tree growth behavior. Since the model accounted for stand density, it was possible to predict how different stand densities would affect each tree species growth over time. Finally, the tree species Triplaris gardneriana Weddell, Inga vera Willd. and Xylopia brasiliensis Spreng are recommended as poten- tially fast-growing tree species in the Atlantic forest biome. These tree species exhibited good growth rates regardless the stand density simulated (1600/ha, 2000/ha, and 2400/ha) to reach a dbh of 10 cm (Xylopia brasiliensis Spreng - 16 years, 17 years, and 18 years; Triplaris gardneriana Weddell - 15 years, 17 years, and 21 years; Inga vera Willd. - 25 years, 25.5 years, and 26 years) and showed promising poten- tial for both restoration and production programs. The developed approach reveals a unique diameter growth rate prediction method. Ó 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Brazil possesses a wide diversity of biomes (Amazon, Atlantic Forest, Pampas, Savanna, Semi-arid woodland and Wetlands) resulting in a large diversity of tree species, which contributes to a very significant carbon stock capacity occurring within its bor- ders (totaling 8,514,877 km 2 ). The State of Minas Gerais occupies approximately 7% of the Brazilian area (586,528 km 2 ), and it dis- plays landscape variations including Savanna, Atlantic forest, and Semi-arid woodland biomes, with 57%, 41%, and 2% of the vegeta- tion, respectively. These three different biomes harbor a large http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2017.06.048 0378-1127/Ó 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. ⇑ Corresponding author. E-mail address: jscolforo@dcf.ufla.br (J.R.S. Scolforo). Forest Ecology and Management 400 (2017) 578–586 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Forest Ecology and Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/foreco