Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Urban Climate journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/uclim Trend of extreme rainfall events using suitable Global Circulation Model to combat the water logging condition in Kolkata Metropolitan Area Sadhan Malik a , Subodh Chandra Pal a, ⁎ , Ashim Sattar b , Sudhir Kumar Singh c , Biswajit Das a , Rabin Chakrabortty a , Pir Mohammad b a Department of Geography, The University of Burdwan, Burdwan, West Bengal, India b Department of Earth Sciences, IIT Roorkee, India c K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric Science and Ocean Studies, IIDS, Nehru Science Centre, University of Allahabad, Allahabad, UP, India ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Climate change GCM, Kolkata Annual maximum extreme rainfall TRMM Multi-decadal oscillation Future trend ABSTRACT Kolkata Metropolitan Area (KMA) is one of the most densely populated areas in the world, where extreme precipitation events result in frequent waterlogging and flood inundation conditions which can adversely affect the city. In this study, we evaluate the nature and trend of annual- maximum precipitation events by employing suitable Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The trend of observed annual maximum daily rainfall from 1901 to 2013 has been analysed through linear regression, recurrence period and multi-decadal oscillation. The results show that the observed rainfall of the given region follows the natural variability and oscillation trend. TRMM time-series data (2000–2019) is employed to validate the ground-station data series using Modified Mann Kendall and Sen’s Slope estimator test, which shows a correlation of 0.88. In addition, suitable bias-corrected GCMs have been selected to estimate the future precipitation in the given study area. Analysis of future rainfall for the period of 2071–2100 revealed that the RCPs are showing an increase in the extreme precipitation intensity by 1.5, 2.3 and 3 times considering RCP 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. The presented results serve as the pre- liminary data for future planning and designing efficient flood management strategies in the given area to combat water-logging in KMA. 1. Introduction Climate change is a factor that can pose a remarkable and multidimensional risk on our living and physical environment (Peterson and Manton, 2008; IPCC, 2012; Mishra, 2009, Mishra et al., 2012, 2015). Due to the increase in greenhouse gases over the past few decades, the climate of the Earth has experienced severe warming (Riebeek, 2010). This, in turn, is leading to extreme rainfall events of higher magnitude and frequency in recent times (IPCC, 2007 and IPCC, 2012; Rajeevan et al., 2008; Xu et al., 2015; Cavanaugh et al., 2015; Dong et al., 2017). The indicative literature highlights that both observation and climatic modelling shows climate change-induced increase in extreme rainfall events (Groisman et al., 2005; Haylock and Nicholls, 2000; Roy and Balling Jr, 2004; Alexander et al., 2006; Klein Tank et al., 2006; Goswami et al., 2006; Kharin et al., 2007; Rajeevan et al., 2008; Revadekar et al., 2011; Min et al., 2011; Mishra et al., 2012; Mishra et al. 2015; Schickhoff et al., 2015). In addition, its impact on Indian monsoon can https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100599 Received 14 March 2019; Received in revised form 17 December 2019; Accepted 29 January 2020 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: geo.subodh@gmail.com (S.C. Pal). Urban Climate 32 (2020) 100599 2212-0955/ © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. T