Water Conservation Science and Engineering https://doi.org/10.1007/s41101-019-00076-3 REVIEW PAPER Modeling Hydrological Responses to Land Use Dynamics, Choke, Ethiopia Agenagnew A. Gessesse 1,2 · Assefa M. Melesse 3 · Fikru F. Abera 4 · Anteneh Z. Abiy 3 Received: 16 May 2019 / Revised: 5 August 2019 / Accepted: 7 August 2019 © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2019 Abstract The main objective of this study was to assess the hydrological response of the Choke mountain range to land use dynamics. Two watersheds, Muga and Suha watersheds, were selected for detailed evaluation and analysis. The study was conducted using integrated applications of remote sensing and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was calibrated using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm in SWAT-CUP. Decadal land use maps (1985, 1995, and 2005) were used to simulate the hydrological responses. Simulated model results showed that over the past two decades (1985–2004), the total annual surface and lateral streamflows in the watershed increased at a rate of 1.2 mm/year and 0.57 mm/year, whereas the annual total groundwater flow and percolation in the basin decreased at a rate of 1.6 mm/year and 1.77 mm/year respectively. The decrease in the streamflow was more pronounced during the dry season (October to May), for which statistically significant declines of the base flow or the low flow at a rate of 0.37 m 3 /year and 0.73 m 3 /year in the Muga and Suha watersheds, respectively, were found. In the wet season (June to September), the peak flow has increased by 50% in Muga and 94% in Suha watersheds. Results of this study showed that the SWAT model can be an effective and useful tool for the assessment of response of watersheds to land use alterations. Keywords Land use · Remote sensing · SWAT · Watershed · Choke · Ethiopia Introduction Choke mountain range (hereafter called Choke) is the source of major rivers that drain into the Upper Blue Nile River Basin. Like many mountain ranges in Ethiopia, Choke is a profoundly affected by poor agricultural and settlement practices and expansions [1, 2] causing undesirable effects on the environment that include deforestation, land degradation, soil erosion, and hydrological alterations [1, 3, 4]. There is also an on-going consensus that the area faces year-to-year rainfall variability, increasing competition for natural resources, impacts on agriculture and hydrological systems [5]. These factors lead to growing persistent poverty and declining agricultural production in the mountain range watersheds [4, 6]. Two watersheds, Muga-Suha watershed, are located in the Southwestern part of Choke mountain range. The  Agenagnew A. Gessesse agugessesse@gmail.com Extended author information available on the last page of the article. rapid increment of population, climate variability, land use dynamics, land surface erosion, and sediment transport had been affecting the existing land and water resources system of the watershed [7–9]. However, the Muga-Suha watershed used for extensive agricultural land use to sustain communities and source of economies. Land use changes due to agriculture, urbanization, and deforestation are anticipated as a primary cause to change the hydrological system such as an increasing trend of surface runoff, reducing the groundwater flow and impacting water quality [10]. The extent of alterations of these flow components is dependent on land use change and other climatic variables. However, the effect of either of the drivers is not known. Such knowledge is important to support improved watershed management programs that can better safeguard the alarming land degradation in the Choke. Understanding the link between the hydrological and environmental impacts of human- and nature-induced processes require a thorough field-based investigation and modeling efforts [7, 9, 11]. Model complexity is also an important criterion of model selection in addition to the goodness of fit. It was argued that even complex modeling does not provide better