Copyright © 2020 by the author(s). Published here under license by the Resilience Alliance. Walker, B., S. R. Carpenter, C. Folke, L. Gunderson, G. D. Peterson, M. Scheffer, M. Schoon, and F. R. Westley. 2020. Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle. Ecology and Society 25(4):23. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12072-250423 Guest Editorial Navigating the chaos of an unfolding global cycle Brian Walker 1,2 , Stephen R. Carpenter 3 , Carl Folke 4,5 , Lance Gunderson 6 , Garry D. Peterson 5 , Marten Scheffer 7 , Michael Schoon 8 and Frances R. Westley 9 ABSTRACT. There are many calls to use the COVID 19 crisis as an opportunity for transforming to a future trajectory that is more equitable and environmentally sustainable. What is lacking is a cohesive framework for bringing these calls together. We propose that such transitions could be informed by lessons from three decades of scholarship on abrupt and surprising change in systems of humans and nature. Over time, many social-ecological systems exhibit cycles of change consisting of sequential patterns of growth, development, crisis, and reorganization. A critical phase in the cycle is the brief period after crisis when novelty and innovation can change the future trajectory. Without being prepared for this window of opportunity, deep, systemic change may be unachievable. We propose a three-step process to identify the major drivers of the global system that need to be changed: (1) identifying what society values; (2) identifying the determinants of these valued variables; and (3) identifying the underlying drivers of the determinants and how they need to be changed. A tentative list of five such drivers are identified and discussed: (i) the economic system, (ii) homogenization, (iii) human population growth, size, and densities, (iv) consumption patterns, human ethics, and behavior, and (v) governance. They are linked to seven questions relating to how we might proceed in addressing the drivers. If response to the crisis merely reinforces the existing system, its incompatibility with the natural world and its propensity to increase inequity and conflict will likely increase fragility and lead to another version of the present calamity. If it is a deliberately transformed system that emerges its future will depend on the reorganization process, and the way the system is guided into the future. What is needed is a deliberate, fundamental cultivation of emergence to enable transformation toward better futures in order to avoid an inevitable deepening of a system that ultimately is worse for all. Key Words: adaptive cycle; COVID 19; drivers; global; governance; gridlock; renewal; transformation INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 crisis has focused attention on the unsustainability of the world order and opened a window of opportunity for change. However, a plausible alternative needs a framework for bringing together the many disparate calls, and we suggest a resilience lens provides such a structure. A key feature of resilience is the existence of threshold levels in the controlling variables beyond which the system continues to move away from, rather than back to what it was like before. Crossing a threshold is often due to an external shock. Under which conditions could the COVID shock move the world onto a novel pathway that is more sustainable than the current one? What does resilience theory suggest about the possibilities to deliberately transform into a new kind of system at this point? CYCLES OF GRIDLOCK AND RENEWAL How, where, and when to intervene? Ecological, social, economic, and other complex systems exhibit characteristic four-phase cycles of change (Gunderson and Holling 2002; Fig. 1). The “foreloop” (r and K) is reasonably predictable and slow. The “backloop” (collapse [Ω] and reorganization [α]) is fast and unpredictable. New organizations (r) that are able to make quick decisions inevitably reach a phase (K) of increased connections, investments, rules, efficiencies, and Fig. 1. The pattern of dynamics in an adaptive cycle, showing how the two phases where change happens (Ω and α) are influenced by conditions and processes at small and large scales. Adapted from Chaffin and Gunderson 2016. 1 Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 2 CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia, 3 Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA, 4 Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 5 Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 6 Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA, 7 Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 8 School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA, 9 Waterloo Institute for Social Innovation and Resilience and School for Environment, Enterprise and Development, University of Waterloo, Kitchener, ON, Canada