J. Math. Biol. DOI 10.1007/s00285-014-0757-z Mathematical Biology Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest E. Schertzer · A. C. Staver · S. A. Levin Received: 24 June 2013 © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 Abstract The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recog- nized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna–forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna–forest bista- bility. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecologi- cal processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna–forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00285-014-0757-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. E. Schertzer (B ) UPMC Univ. Paris 06, Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires, CNRS UMR 7599, Paris, France e-mail: emmanuel.schertzer@gmail.com E. Schertzer Collège de France, Center for Interdisciplinary Research in Biology, CNRS UMR 7241, Paris, France A. C. Staver Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, USA S. A. Levin Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, USA 123