11/25/2006 Common Murre Vital Rates Lee and Sydeman 1 POPULATION VITAL RATES FOR COMMON MURRES (URIA AALGE) OF SOUTHEAST FARALLON ISLAND, CALIFORNIA A REPORT TO THE CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF FISH AND GAME - OFFICE OF SPILL PREVENTION AND RESPONSE Derek E. Lee and William J. Sydeman PRBO Conservation Science, Marine Ecology Division, 3820 Cypress Drive, Petaluma, CA 94954 dlee@prbo.org wsydeman@prbo.org , 707-781-2555 x. 319 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We used state-of-the-art capture-mark-recapture methods to estimate annual and age- specific probabilities of survival, recruitment, and breeding success for Common Murres (Uria aalge) of the Farallon Islands, California. These estimates are suitable for use in population modeling and simulation exercises. Age-specific values were determined for birds banded as nestlings. Annual variation in survival, breeding propensity, and breeding success was determined for birds marked as adults. We ranked models of temporal environmental covariates for adult survival, breeding propensity, and breeding success. We found age effects on survival, recruitment, and breeding success. We found that survival of adult Common Murres was diminished during years of warmer sea surface temperatures (SST). Breeding propensity was reduced during the El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Breeding success was variable, with extremely low values in three years characterized by El Niño conditions, but we found no correlation between breeding success and ocean climate indices. Temporal variation in adult parameter values co-varied positively, a situation conducive to rapid population change. The age-specific vital rates estimated in this report and our estimates of interannual variation in those rates are appropriate for use in population dynamics modeling efforts for Common Murres in the highly variable California Current System. We suggest incorporating variance into any simulation modeling, especially the positive covariation among demographic parameters.