Int. J. Hydrology Science and Technology, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2017 303
Copyright © 2017 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Future climatic changes in Lidder basin of west
Himalayan region
Yasir Altaf* and Manzoor A. Ahangar
Department of Civil Engineering,
National Institute of Technology-Srinagar,
J&K, India
Email: yasir_04phd13@nitsri.net
Email: maahanger@gmail.com
*Corresponding author
Mohammad Fahimuddin
Principal Water Resources Engineer,
DHI India Environment Pvt Ltd.,
New Delhi, 110020, India
Email: mfa@dhigroup.com
Abstract: In the present study, the multiple linear regression technique was
used to downscale outputs from six different global climate models to a local
scale in the Lidder river basin. Downscaling was carried out by relating the
monthly predictors for A1B emission scenario (AR-4) obtained from six
different global climate models with the monthly predictands. The predictor-
predictand relationships were found out with reasonable values of coefficient of
determination (R2). Subsequently, future monthly and annual projections for
precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature up to the end of 21st
century using the data from six different GCMs were found out. The results
obtained were validated with observed data for the years 2011 to 2014 which
showed excellent comparison particularly for the models CGCM3, ECHAM5
and HadCM3. The results obtained using different GCMs show that the climate
of the region will be warmer and wetter by the end of 21st century relative to
early 21st century.
Keywords: general circulation models; downscaling; multiple linear
regression; MLR; predictors.
Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Altaf, Y., Ahangar, M.A.
and Fahimuddin, M. (2017) ‘Future climatic changes in Lidder basin of west
Himalayan region’, Int. J. Hydrology Science and Technology, Vol. 7, No. 3,
pp.303–321.
Biographical notes: Yasir Altaf is a Research Scholar at the Department of
Civil Engineering National Institute of Technology Srinagar. He received his
BTech in Agricultural Engineering from the Shere-Kashmir University of
Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Kashmir India in 2010, and MTech in
Water Resources Engineering from the National Institute of Technology
Srinagar, India in 2012. Currently, he is pursuing his PhD in Water Resources
Engineering at the Department of Civil Engineering NIT, Srinagar. His
research interests include modern systems of irrigation, climate change,
hydrological modelling, ground water modelling and integrated water resources
management.