Characteristics, Effective Reproduction Number (Rt), and Spatial Modelling of Covid-19 Spread at Magetan District, East Java, Indonesia Yudhi Wibowo 1 a , Nendyah Roestijawati 1 b Atik C. Hidajah 2 c Agoes Y. Purnomo 3 d and Tutiek Herlina 4 e 1 Department of Public Health and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Jenderal Soedirman, Purwokerto, Indonesia 2 Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Public Health, Airlangga University, Surabaya, Indonesia 3 District Health Office, Magetan, Indonesia 4 Poltekes of Health Ministry, Surabaya, Indonesia Keywords: Characteristics, Effective Reproduction Number (Rt), Spatial Modelling, Covid-19. Abstract: Covid-19 has been rapidly spreading to various regions in Indonesia including to Magetan District which has the 3rd highest cases (0.91%) in East Java Province. This study was aimed to determine the characteristics, effective reproduction number (Rt) and spatial modelling of Covid-19 spread in the Magetan District. This was a cross-sectional study which included 43 patients with confirmed Covid-19. Univariate analysis was used to describe the characteristics of Covid-19. Epiestim was used to calculate Rt while the spread of Covid-19 cases was spatially modelled using Crimestat. On June 28, 2020, Magetan had 96 suspected cases, 104 confirmed cases with 75 cases were recovered and 4 people died. Most of the confirmed cases were at the age group of 40-49 years (22.6%), male (54%), and symptomatic (91.5%). Fever was the most commonly found symptom (81.7%). The Rt for the period March 10, 2020-June 28, 2020 was 1.27 (0.85-1.82; 95% CrI). Spatial analysis showed that the distribution of confirmed cases was widespread in 15 sub-districts. The Covid-19 outbreak was still out of control and still ongoing in Magetan. Therefore, a strong implementation of health protocol is recommended. 1 INTRODUCTION Corona virus disease-19 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Corona Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) formerly known as 2019-nCov. This disease was firstly identified from 41 cases of pneumonia with unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China on December 30, 2019. It was reported that the disease related to the contact with the seafood market (Isaac I. Bogoch, Alexander Watts, Andrea Thomas-Bachli, Carmen Huber, 2020; Lu, Stratton and Tang, 2020; WHO, 2020a, 2020c). a https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7523-2170 b https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4232-062X c https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9797-1887 d https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8860-8787 e https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4238-9574 On March 11, 2020, World Health Organisation (WHO) declared a global Covid-19 pandemic due the rapid increase in the number of cases (13 times) and affected countries (three times) within two weeks (Cucinotta and Vanelli, 2020; Sohrabi et al., 2020). As of May 5, 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic has spread to 215 countries and territories. Globally there were 3,525,116 confirmed Covid-19 cases and 243,540 deaths (WHO, 2020b). While in Indonesia as of May 6, 2020, there were 12,071 confirmed Covid-19 and 872 deaths. East Java Province is the second epicenter of Covid-19 cases in Indonesia after DKI Jakarta (Kemenkes R, 2020). Magetan District had 69 positive people with 4 people Wibowo, Y., Roestijawati, N., Hidajah, A., Purnomo, A. and Herlina, T. Characteristics, Effective Reproduction Number (Rt), and Spatial Modelling of Covid-19 Spread at Magetan District, East Java, Indonesia. DOI: 10.5220/0010487100210027 In Proceedings of the 1st Jenderal Soedirman International Medical Conference in conjunction with the 5th Annual Scientific Meeting (Temilnas) Consortium of Biomedical Science Indonesia (JIMC 2020), pages 21-27 ISBN: 978-989-758-499-2 Copyright c  2021 by SCITEPRESS – Science and Technology Publications, Lda. All rights reserved 21