American-Eurasian J. Agric. & Environ. Sci., 12 (1): 115-122, 2012
ISSN 1818-6769
© IDOSI Publications, 2012
Corresponding Author: Mehrdad Ramazanipour, Postal Address: Islamic Azad University, Chalous branch, Chalous, Iran.
Mob: +98–9111370065.
115
Characteristics of Drought in Three Recent Decades
in North of Iran, Guilan Province
Mahmoud Roshani, Mehrdad Ramazanipour, Marzieh Tatina and Masoud Robati
1 1 2 3
Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Chalous branch, Chalous, Iran
1
Department of Geography, Islamic Azad University, Rasht branch, Rasht, Iran
2
Department of Civil Engineering, Ahvaz University, Ahvaz, Iran
3
Abstract: The drought monitoring in Guilan, particularly its intensity, duration, frequency and the extend area
have been analyzed for the period '1966 – 2002' by SPI method. The results showed that droughts occurred
periodically within the region and relatively regular cycles and frequency of the occurrence of drought was
different at wet and dry stations. The highest frequency for each station is generally moderate and severe
type in relation to wet stations. The correlation of SPI values in 19 stations distinguished a synchrony of
the occurrence of drought in adjacent stations and its rate reduced with increasing distance. Finally,
spatial-temporal pattern of drought after the monitoring indicated an occurrence of continuous and
discontinuous droughts in study area which caused, provided the critical conditions for natural and
human resources.
Key words: Guilan Drought Precipitation SPI Monitoring.
INTRODUCTION from the comparative study indicated that the Artificial
With regard to technical and scientific progresses, efficient to predict the river runoff than classical
the human has still been vulnerable against natural regression model in Jarahi watershed. Gholami et al. [3]
phenomena, including droughts and is seeking for applied the HEC-HMS and Artificial Neural Network
methods which to recognize the occurrence of this (ANN) to simulate the rainfall-runoff process over the
phenomenon. This phenomenon has had Kasilian Watershed located in the north of Iran. They are
multidimensional effects and has attracted most believed the highest efficiency of this method and
enthusiasts. Therefore, its recognition can present the desirable effect of optimized initial loss on
practical strategies. With regard to the importance of increasing the accuracy of simulation in runoff and
drought, extensive worldwide studies have been hydrograph. Sirdas and Sen [4] verified direct
carried out. Tsakiris and Vangelis [1] in their study found connection between duration and extent of drought
that the regional drought could be estimated with by Run and Z- Score methods and Kriging
its predictable consequences by various methods. interpolating in Trakya area of Turkey. Loukas et al. [5]
They believed that public awareness of the occurrence, evaluated the effects of climate change on severity of
areal extent, intensity and the duration of drought are drought by use of SPI and GIS in the region of Thessaly,
important for decision making. Therefore standardized Greece. The results showed that the severity of annual
precipitation index (SPI) in this viewpoint has the drought is increased for all hydrological areas and SPI
capability of global usage. This method could be done time scales, with the socioeconomic scenario SRES A2
using simple computer routine calculations and also being the most extreme. In this paper we used the
supports drought monitoring of a region and its spatial standardized precipitation index for recognition,
analysis in medium scale. Solaimani[2] showed that the monitoring and determination of drought components
monthly hydrometric and climatic data in ANN were (intensity, duration and frequency and areal extent) and
ranged from 1969 to 2000. Also the results extracted it’s zoning by GIS in Guilan province.
Neural Network method is more appropriate and