Comment The informative nature of unexpected results: reply to Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc ´ azar Diego A. Pe˜ naranda ¶ and Javier A. Simonetti Departamento de Ciencias Ecol´ ogicas, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile Introduction Predictive modeling in conservation science is a pow- erful tool to inform decision making, especially when data are scarce. Predictions offer an opportunity to de- velop proactive strategies that may alleviate pressures on species (Cardillo & Meijard 2012). On such grounds, we advanced the most likely population trends of poorly known species of Bolivian mammals as an input to setting conservation priorities (Pe˜ naranda & Simonetti 2015). Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar (2016) qualify some outcomes of our trait-based models as “drawbacks” (Teller´ ıa & Yapu-Alc´ azar) and suggest that they may lead to sub- optimal resource allocation when setting conservation priorities. We welcome criticisms but believe those of Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar arise from a misunderstanding of the modeling approach we used and our results and conclusions. Further, they appear uncomfortable with our unexpected results because our results “do not agree with theoretical expectations” or with “what is apparent for the species” we studied. Here, we address Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar’s misinterpretations and call for thought on the application of conventional wisdom in ecology and species conservation. Misinterpretations Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar assert that we reclassified the population trends of 22% of all Bolivian mammals. This is not correct. Rather, our trait-based analysis shows that 22% of the species we considered in our study sample are expected to have population trajectories different from what is known. That is, we expect the trajectories of 41 rather than 86 species to differ. Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar state that our reclassification of the vicu˜ na (Vicugna vicugna) as a declining species (i.e., relatively high risk of extinction) is inaccurate be- cause the species was removed from the Bolivian Red List ¶email diegopenaranda12@gmail.com Paper submitted December 11, 2015; revised manuscript accepted April 5, 2016. due to its current abundance (Tarifa & Aguirre 2009). This contention stems from a misunderstanding of the analy- sis. Our trait-based predictive model of the risk of decline aims to elucidate the intrinsic biological vulnerability of a species in the absence of conservation actions rather than to reclassify species’ conservation status. Vicu˜ na populations have recovered from near extinction in the 1960s due to long-term management (Tarifa & Aguirre 2009; MMAyA 2012). This recovery is largely due to pop- ulations inside protected areas; however, illegal hunting is still a threat, particularly outside parks and reserves (Lichtenstein & Vil´ a 2003). Counterfactual analyses reveal that conservation actions improve the status of species under management, especially ungulates (Hoffmann et al. 2010, 2015). Absence of current multinational, targeted conservation efforts would result in the species being classified as threatened, as it was in the 1960s (Licht- enstein et al. 2008). Hence, classifying the vicu˜ na as a declining species is correct because its current status inside protected areas is management dependent (Hoff- mann et al. 2015). This fact could result in vicu˜ nas being classified as near threatened (Mace et al. 2008). Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar claim that we reclassified the Andean fox (Lycalopex culpaeus) as a declining species, which we did not. In fact, we used data on the Andean fox among other species to train our predictive model. Hence, the fox was excluded from the classification pro- cess (Supporting Information in Pe˜ naranda & Simonetti [2015]). The declining status of this species in Bolivia was proposed by local scientists and managers in the national workshop for the categorization of the Bolivian threatened vertebrates (Tarifa & Aguirre 2009). Informative Nature of Unexpected Results Teller´ ıa and Yapu-Alc´ azar further claim that the Andean fox is unlikely to be declining because it is regarded as a habitat generalist. Unfortunately, while habitat loss and 907 Conservation Biology, Volume 30, No. 4, 907–909 C  2016 Society for Conservation Biology DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12752