©2014. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.07.004 METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING BIOMASS ENERGY POTENTIAL AND ITS APPLICATION TO COLOMBIA Miguel Angel GONZALEZ-SALAZAR 1 , Mirko MORINI 1 , Michele PINELLI 1 , Pier Ruggero SPINA 1 , Mauro VENTURINI 1 , Matthias FINKENRATH 2 , Witold-Roger POGANIETZ 3 , 1 Università degli Studi di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy 2 Kempten University of Applied Sciences, Kempten, Germany 3 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany ABSTRACT This paper presents a methodology to estimate the biomass energy potential and its associated uncertainty at a country level when quality and availability of data are limited. The current biomass energy potential in Colombia is assessed following the proposed methodology and results are compared to existing assessment studies. The proposed methodology is a bottom-up resource-focused approach with statistical analysis that uses a Monte Carlo algorithm to stochastically estimate the theoretical and the technical biomass energy potential. The paper also includes a proposed approach to quantify uncertainty combining a probabilistic propagation of uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis and a set of disaggregated sub-models to estimate reliability of predictions and reduce the associated uncertainty. Results predict a theoretical energy potential of 0.744 EJ and a technical potential of 0.059 EJ in 2010, which might account for 1.2% of the annual primary energy production (4.93 EJ). Keywords: bio-energy, biomass, energy potential, review, Colombia, estimation NOMENCLATURE Abbreviations CHP Combined Heat and Power CI confidence interval EUD extended uniform distribution FFB fresh fruit bunch MSW municipal solid waste R&D Research and Development UPME Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética Symbols a availability factor b biogas yield from manure c by-product to product ratio in forestry d dry basis f manure production per head k by-product to product ratio in agriculture H heads, animal stocks HHV higher heating value LHV lower heating value M moisture content N number of references P production Q theoretical energy potential