ORIGINAL PAPER Diabetes and Impaired Fasting Glucose Prediction Using Anthropometric Indices in Adults from Maracaibo City, Venezuela Valmore Bermu ´dez 1 • Juan Salazar 1 • Joselyn Rojas 1,2 • Marı ´a Calvo 1 • Milagros Rojas 1 • Mervin Cha ´vez-Castillo 1 • Roberto An ˜ez 1 • Mayela Cabrera 1 Ó Springer Science+Business Media New York 2016 Abstract To determine the predictive power of various anthropometric indices for the identification of dysg- lycemic states in Maracaibo, Venezuela. A cross-sectional study with randomized, multi-staged sampling was realized in 2230 adult subjects of both genders who had their body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist– height ratio (WHR) determined. Diagnoses of type 2 dia- betes mellitus (DM2) and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were made following ADA 2015 criteria. ROC curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of each anthropo- metric parameter. Area under the curve (AUC) values were compared through Delong’s test. Of the total 2230 indi- viduals (52.6 % females), 8.4 % were found to have DM2, and 19.5 % had IFG. Anthropometric parameters displayed greater predictive power regarding newly diagnosed dia- betics, where WHR was the most important predictor in both females (AUC = 0.808; CI 95 % 0.715–0.900. Sen- sitivity: 82.8 %; specificity: 76.2 %) and males (AUC = 0.809; CI 95 % 0.736–0.882. Sensitivity: 78.6 %; specificity: 68.1 %), although all three parameters appeared to have comparable predictive power in this subset. In previously diagnosed diabetic subjects, WHR was superior to both WC and BMI in females, and WHR and WC were both superior to BMI in males. Lower pre- dictive values were found for IFG in both genders. Accumulation of various altered anthropometric measure- ments was associated with increased odds ratios for both newly and previously diagnosed DM2. The predictive power of anthropometric measurements was greater for DM2 than IFG. We suggest assessment of as many avail- able parameters as possible in the clinical setting. Keywords Diabetes mellitus Á Impaired fasting glucose Á Prediction Á Risk factors Á Obesity Introduction Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) is a heterogeneous meta- bolic disorder caused by a combination of genetic and environmental factors, which currently affects over 347 millions of people worldwide [1]. In Latin America, its prevalence is relatively high, oscillating around 8–10 % in diverse demographies [2]. The natural history of this dis- ease comprehends a previous metabolic state, known as pre-diabetes, where subjects do not meet the criteria for DM2, yet cannot be classified as euglycemic [3]. This phenomenon is tightly linked to various risk factors, such as alterations in insulin secretion and activity, physical inactivity, stress, aging, and especially, overweight [4]. For decades, obesity has been considered a risk factor for DM2 and other metabolic disorders [5], assessed through various anthropometric parameters, including the body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist– hip ratio, and waist–height ratio (WHR), among others [6]. Because this disorder has become an epidemic—our region included [7]—its early detection is necessary in order to establish opportune therapeutic interventions oriented towards prevention of potential complications. & Juan Salazar juanjsv18@hotmail.com 1 Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases Research Center, School of Medicine, University of Zulia, 20th Avenue, Maracaibo 4004, Venezuela 2 Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA 123 J Community Health DOI 10.1007/s10900-016-0209-3