1 BIOTROPIA Vol. 19 No. 1 (June 2012) - SEAMEO BIOTROP journal.biotrop.org/index.php/biotropia/article/.../236/5 DENGUE EARLY WARNING MODEL USING DEVELOPMENT STAGES OF Aedes aegypti MOSQUITO AND CLIMATE INFORMATION RINI HIDAYATI 1 , RIZALDI BOER 2 , YONNY KOESMARYONO 1 , UPIK KESUMAWATI 3 , AND SJAFRIDA MANUWOTO 4 1. Departement of Geophysics and Meteorology, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Darmaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia 2. Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia and Pacific (CCROM- SEAP), Bogor 16143, Indonesia 3. Veterinary Health Entomology Laboratory, Veterinary Faculty, IPB, Bogor 16680, Indonesia 4. Entomology Laboratory, Dept. Of Plant Protection, IPB, Bogor 16680, Indonesia ABSTRACT The use of early warning system is potential adaptation options to reduce the impact of the climate variability and change. This study aims to develop a dengue early warning model using climate information. The model was developed through three steps of analysis. First step was to determine the length of periods used in prediction and optimal time for eradicating Aedes aegypti mosquito’s breeding sites. Second step was to identify the best prediction model of dengue incidence rate (IR). Third step was to develop an early warning model using stochastic spreadsheet. It was found that the best predictors for predicting dengue incidence rate at week-n (IR n ) were (1) rainfall index with two weeks lead time (ICH n-2 ). The rainfall index of week-n th is a function of three week moving averages rainfall (CH3), i.e. (CH3 n -1.155*CH3 n-1 +0.702*CHn-2), and (2) IR with one week lead time (IR n-1 ). The IR model prediction was IR n = 0.795*IR n-1 +0.067*ICH n-2 with R 2 =76.6%. These models (result model from first and third step) can be used to provide early warning on optimum time for controlling the mosquito’s breeding sites and the need for fogging action in order to avoid the dengue incidence rate beyond the critical limit defined by the Ministry of Health. Key words: Aedes aegypti mosquito, early warning model, optimal breeding site controlling time, climate variability and change. INTRODUCTION Since the middle of XX century (Christopher 1960), until the beginning of XXI century, the disease of dengue haemorragic fever (DHF) has been given attention in the wide world. Data in 2007 indicated that the number of cases and death rate of its patients, as well  Corresponding Author: rinihidayatigfm@gmail.com