BIOTROPIA Vol. 19 No. 1, 2012: 30 - 41 DENGUE EARLY WARNING MODEL USING DEVELOPMENT STAGES OF MOSQUITO AND CLIMATE INFORMATION Aedes aegypti RINI HIDAYATI , RIZALDI BOER , YONNY KOESMARYONO , UPIK KESUMAWATI , and SJAFRIDA MANUWOTO Received 10 January 2012/Accepted 15 May 2012 This study aims at developing a dengue early warning model using climate information. The model was developed through three steps of analyses. The first step was to determine the length of periods used in prediction and optimal time for eradicating mosquito's breeding sites. The second step was to identify the best prediction model of dengue Incidence Rate (IR). The third step was to develop an early warning model using stochastic spreadsheet. It was found that the best predictor for predicting dengue incidence rate at week-n (IR ) was (1) rainfall index with two weeks lead time (ICH ). The rainfall index of week-n is a function of three week moving averages rainfall (CH3), . (CH3 -1.155*CH3 +0.702*CHn-2), and (2) IR with one week lead time (IR ). The IR model prediction was IR = 0.795*IR +0.067*ICH with R =76.6%. These models (models resulted from the first and third steps) can be used to provide early warning on optimum time for controlling the mosquito's breeding sites and the need for fogging action in order to prevent the dengue incidence rate beyond the critical limit as defined by the Ministry of Health. , early warning model, breeding site, time control, climate variability, climate change 1* 2 1 3 4 th 2 1. 2. 3. 4. Departement of Geophysics and Meteorology, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Darmaga, Bogor, 16680, Indonesia Centre for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management in Southeast Asia and Pacific (CCROM-SEAP), Bogor, 16143, Indonesia Veterinary Health Entomology Laboratory, Veterinary Faculty, IPB, Bogor, 16680, Indonesia Entomology Laboratory, Dept. of Plant Protection, IPB, Bogor, 16680, Indonesia. Aedes aegypti i.e Aedes aegypti ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION n n-2 n n-1 n-1 n n-1 n-2 Key words: Since mid 20 century (Christopher 1960), until the beginning of the 21 century, the disease of dengue haemorragic fever (DHF) has been given attention worldwide. Data of 2007 indicated that the number of cases and death rate of the th st * Corresponding author : rinihidayatigfm@gmail.com 30