Z Sensitivity Ana ly sis of Zika Ep id e mi c Mod e l T. O. Oluyo, M. O. Adeyemi ——————————  —————————— Abstract – In recent ti m es , Zika f ever has become a scourge to human. Thi s i s so es peci all y because there i s no s peci f i c treatment or vacci ne currentl y avail abl e. How ever, w e present an ei ght com partm ental m athem ati cal m odel here, w hi ch s tudi es the dynam i cal spread of Zi ka f ever w i thi n humans (hos t) and betw een humans and m os qui toes (vector), and the poss i bl e control measures. The exi s tence of regi on w here the m odel i s epi dem i ol ogi call y f eas i bl e i s es tabli s hed. The m athem ati cal anal ys i s of the m odel show s that there exi s ts a di s eas e-f ree equili bri um poi nt, w hi ch i s l ocall y as ymptoti call y s tabl e. We carri ed out a s ens i ti vi ty anal ys i s of the bas i c reproducti on number, w hi c h show s that the most s ens i ti ve parameter that must be w orked upon i n order to control the di s eas e outbreak. Numeri cal s i m ul ati on w as al s o carri ed out by m apl e s of tw are us i ng di f f er enti al trans f o rm ati on method to show the ef f ects of recovery (as a res ul t of symptoms treat ment) (γ), i s ol ati on (ρ), and vector eli m i nati on ( δ 2 ) on the spread of Zi ka f ever. Our num eri cal res ul ts show ed that i ncreas i ng the recovery to a very hi gh rate has s i gni f i cant ef f ect i n reduci ng i nf ecti on and i s ol ati on of i nf ected i ndi vi dual s al s o reduces the trans m i ss i on of the ZikV i nf e cti on. Al s o, the rate of m os qui to hum an- i nduced deaths, if i ncreas ed, w ill res ul t i n the eli m i nati on of the vector (m os qui toes ) . The res ul t f rom the s ens i ti vi ty anal y s i s show ed that human bi rth rate and human- human trans m i ss i on parameters are the most s ens i ti ve parameter to the bas i c reproducti on num ber obtai ned. Ther ef ore, i s ol ati on of i nf ected i ndi vi dual s , s creeni ng of bl ood pri or to trans f us i on and practi s i ng of protected s ex w ill reduce the ri s k of human- human trans m i ss i on, and as such, preventi on i n trans m i ss i on of ZikV i nf ecti on i s ens ur ed. Keywords – Basic reproduction num ber, Critical points, Isolation, Sensitivity analysis, Stab ility, Zik V. 1 INTRODUCTION IKA fever (or Zika virus disease) is an illness caused by the Zika virus. The disease is spread through the bite of daytime-active Aedes mosquitoes such as the A. aegypti and A. albopictus (these mosquitoes also spread dengue and chikungunya viruses) [3], [18]. The disease derives its name from ‗Zika forest‘ in Uganda, where the virus was first isolated from a rhesus monkey in 1947 [2], [13]. The first human cases were reported in Nigeria in 1954 [3]. The first documented outbreak among people occurred in 2007, in the Federated State of Micronesia [3], [18]. As of January 2016, the disease was occurring in 20 regions of the Americas [1 2]. It is estimated that about 1.5 million people have been infected by Zika in Brazil with over 3,500 cases of ———————————————— • T. O. Oluyo: Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, PMB 4000, Ogbomoso, NIGERIA. E-mail: tooluyo@lautech.edu.ng . • M. O.Adeyemi: Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, PMB 4000, Ogbomoso, NIGERIA. E-mail: mosadex86@gmail.com . microcephaly reported between October 2015 and January 2016 [4], [11]. Also, it is known to have occurred in Africa, Asia and the Pacific [7]. As a result of the outbreak which started in Brazil in 2015, the World health Organization has declared Zika fever a public health emergency of international concern [13], [18]. The disease of Zika virus is transmitted from infected Aedes mosquitoes to humans through mosquito bites [1], [18]. It can also be transmitted from human to human through the blood and semen of an infected human [16], and through an infected pregnant woman to the foetus [1 1]. Zika is a cause of microcephaly and other severe brain defects [12]. The incubation period (the time from exposure to symptoms) of Zika virus disease is not clear, but is likely to be a few days to a week. The symptoms are similar to other arbovirus infection such as dengue, and include fever, skin rashes, conjunctivitis (red eyes), muscle and joint pain, malaise and headache. These symptoms are usually mild and usually last from 2 – 7 days [1], [3], [18]. 1 International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research Volume 9, Issue 2, February-2018 ISSN 2229-5518 587 IJSER © 2018 http://www.ijser.org IJSER