Demography, Vol. 31, No.1, February 1994 Changing Mortality and Morbidity Rates and the Health Status and Life Expectancy of the Older Population* Eileen M. Crimmins Andrus Gerontology Center University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089-0191 Mark D. Hayward Department of Sociology and Population Research Institute The Pennsylvania State University University Park, PA 16802-6202 Yasuhiko Saito Andrus Gerontology Center University of Southern California Los Angeles, CA 90089-0191 This paper demonstrates the consequences of changes in mortality and health transition rates for changes in both health status life expectancy and the prevalence of health problems in the older population. A five-state multistate life table for the mid-1980s provides the baseline for estimating the effect of differing mortality and morbidity schedules. Results show that improving mortality alone implies increases in both the years and the proportion of dependent life; improving morbidity alone reduces both the years and the proportion of dependent life. Improving mortality alone leads to a higher prevalence of dependent individuals in the life table population; improving morbidity alone leads to a lower percentage of individuals with problems in functioning. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the consequences of changes in mortality and morbidity rates for changes in both health status life expectancy and the prevalence of health problems in the older population. Declines in mortality at older ages over the past 25 years have been quite remarkable. Less is known about recent morbidity changes in the older population, although most studies indicate modest increases in the reported prevalence of at least mild disability during the 1970s and into the early 19805 (Colvez and Blanchet 1981; Crimmins 1990; Crimmins and Ingegneri 1992; Crimmins, Saito, and Ingegneri 1989; Riley 1990; Verbrugge 1984, 1989). Some preliminary evidence suggests that this pattern may * An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meetings of the Population Association of America, held in Denver, May 1992. Support for this project was provided by NIA Grant ROI AG05107. Copyright © 1994 Population Association of America 159 Downloaded from http://read.dukeupress.edu/demography/article-pdf/31/1/159/904898/159crimmins.pdf by guest on 10 January 2022