0025-1909/98/4410/1336$05.00 Copyright  1998, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 1336 MANAGEMENT SCIENCE/Vol. 44, No. 10, October 1998 3b2d 0003 Mp 1336 Monday Oct 26 04:01 PM Man Sci (September) 0003 Foundations 2025: A Value Model for Evaluating Future Air and Space Forces * Dr. Gregory S. Parnell j Maj. Harry W. Conley j Col. Jack A. Jackson Lt. Col. Lee J. Lehmkuhl j Col. John M. Andrew Department of Mathematical Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia 23284-2014 & Toffler Associates Joint Simulation System Program Office, Orlando, Florida 32826 AFIT/ENS, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio 45433-7765 Assistant Professor of Mathematical Sciences, HQ USAFA/DFMS, United States Air Force Academy Colorado 80840-6252 Air Force Agency for Modeling and Simulation, Orlando, Florida 32826-3276 A ir Force 2025 was a study directed by the Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force to identify key system concepts and technologies for achieving air and space domi- nance in the year 2025. The study was a large effort in which over 200 military experts participated for more than one year. We developed a Value-Focused Thinking model, which we used to evaluate which futuristic system concepts have the greatest potential to ensure future U.S. air and space dominance. We named the value model Foundations 2025 because it represented a return to the basics of air and space dominance. We used the ‘‘silver standard’’ approach for value hierarchy development. The participants identified key verbs to describe tasks that must be performed in 2025 to ensure air and space domi- nance. The value hierarchy was developed bottom-up by aggregating these verbs into higher order tasks using affinity diagrams. Using the value hierarchy, we used multiattri- bute decision analysis techniques to develop an additive value model with 134 attributes. The Foundations 2025 value model was successfully used to score 43 futuristic system con- cepts and provide insights about the most promising system concepts and technologies. The analysis results directly supported the study director and the senior leadership of the United States Air Force. ( Decision Analysis ; Value- Focused Thinking; Multiattribute Decision Analysis ) Introduction Air Force Chief of Staff General Ronald R. Fogleman ini- tiated the Air Force 2025 Study (2025) by telling Air Uni- versity study participants that ‘‘if we [the Air Force] are going to be relevant in the future, we’ve got to somehow break free of the evolutionary nature of the planning pro- cess’’ (Fogleman 1994). He challenged study participants * The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Govern- ment or the Department of Defense. ‘‘to generate ideas and concepts on the capabilities the United States will require to possess the dominant air and space force in the future’’ (Fogleman 1995). We introduce a Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) (Kee- ney 1992) model, Foundations 2025, that we developed to evaluate which 2025 system concepts have the great- est potential to ensure future U.S. air and space domi- nance. We describe the 2025 process, the search for a ‘‘Gold Standard’’ value hierarchy framework, the Foun- dations 2025 value hierarchy developed by the ‘‘Silver Standard’’ approach, the Foundations 2025 additive