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© 2022 Conscientia Beam. All Rights Reserved.
DOES EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY INCREASE THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX?
EVIDENCE FROM BANGLADESH
Md. Saiful Islam
1
Md. Hasanur
Rahman
2+
Sharna Mazumder
3
1,2,3
Department of Economics, Comilla University, Cumilla, Bangladesh.
1
Email: sful2288@gmail.com
2
Email: hasanur.cou@gmail.com
3
Email: sharnamazumder@gmail.com
(+ Corresponding author)
ABSTRACT
Article History
Received: 17 May 2021
Revised: 5 January 2022
Accepted: 21 January 2022
Published: 14 February 2022
Keywords
Consumer price index (CPI)
Exchange rate volatility (EXV)
Export
Import
Dynamic regression
Quantile regression.
JEL Classification:
C31; E31; F31; F41.
The current study aimed to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility (EXV) on the
consumer price index (CPI) with considering export and import. To estimate the targeted
results, monthly basis data from 2013M01 to 2019M06 has been used. International
financial statistics (IFS) and world development indicators are the key data sources of
this study. The estimated results of dynamic regression and quantile regression analysis
show that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact to raise the consumer price
index in Bangladesh. Import volume and import tax are also liable to raise the price level
due to lack of domestic production. Results of dynamic regression demonstrated that the
one-period lag of the dependent variable LNCPI(-1) has a positive and significant impact
on the current period of CPI where exchange rate volatility has a positive impact on the
rising price level. Moreover, this study contributes to the field of international trade and
international economics through suggestions and policy coordination.
Contribution/Originality: Current study is the key attempt to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility
(EXV) on the consumer price index (CPI) with considering export and import. Through this study, the literature of
relevant fields will be beneficiaries in the séance of policy implication and economic development.
1. INTRODUCTION
With all of its growth surprises, Bangladesh has become a rare model for the rest of the world. With the rapid
growth of all industries including manufacturing and trade, the country's economy is accelerating. As the country
progresses, industry and trade are becoming more important. In the context of Bangladesh's free-market economy,
the role of import trade is crucial. Imports from other countries meet a significant portion of the demand for food
grains, agricultural inputs, industrial machinery, raw materials and components, fuel, and other basic commodities.
Export duties and import taxes are the primary sources of revenue for the country's internal capital when it comes to
funding the national budget, but it impacts on the national price level. Annual import of consumer and industrial
goods remained prevalent in the years following independence (Al Mamun & Nath, 2005; Rahman & Kashem, 2017;
Rahman, Ruma, Hossain, Nahrin, & Majumder, 2021). This dominance has been steadily eroding in recent years, as
the pace and volume of imports of raw materials, machinery, and parts of the manufacturing industry have risen in
comparison. As a result of priorities set on export-oriented industries and import substitution industries in the current
state of Bangladesh's economy, the rate and amount of imports are rising. The essential contention for which an
The Economics and Finance Letters
2022 Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 16-27.
ISSN(e): 2312-430X
ISSN(p): 2312-6310
DOI: 10.18488/29.v9i1.2923
© 2022 Conscientia Beam. All Rights Reserved.