AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF CHANGING DIRECTIONS AND MAGNITUDE OF CASHEW EXPORTS FROM INDIA M. Balakrishnan 1 , K. Chandran 1 , V. Balamurugan 1 , T. Anitha 2 , S. Arivarasan 1 1 Department of Agricultural Economics, TNAU, Coimbatore–3, Tamil Nadu, India 2 Department of Social Sciences, HC & RI, TNAU, Periyakulam, Tamil Nadu, India Corresponding Author : kmbalakrishnan@gmail.com ABSTRACT India is the largest producer and exporter of cashew kernels in the world. It is one of the India’s foreign exchange earners and the second biggest dollar earner. The export of cashew during the year 2013-14 was 1 lakh tonnes, fetching an export earning of Rs. 4046.23 crores. The major importers of Indian cashew are U.S.A, Netherland, U.A.E, U.K, Japan and France. The compound growth rate of cashew area was 3.84 per cent and production 4 per cent. The growth of export value was 4.71 per cent during 1994-95 to 2003-04 and it was high with 6.98 per cent during the recent decade 2004-05 to 2013-14 which indicates the good performance of India in cashew export. The growth rate was more for export value (6.83 per cent) than quantity and unit value. The Coppock’s instability index showed the export quantity, value and unit value of cashew from India during 1994-95 to 2013-14 was stable. Among the top six cashew importing countries, Netherland, U.K and France recorded a significant and positive growth rate in terms of both quantity and value. Cashew export from India was stable to Japan, France, US.A and U.K. The results of Markov chain analysis revealed U.A.E and U.S.A as the loyal markets for India cashew exports. India has a great scope to increase the export of cashew in large quantities by converting large domestic production base along with the improved processing technologies. Keywords : Cashew, Compound Growth Rate, Coppock’s instability index, Markov Chain, Cashew is an important cash crop of India which earns valuable foreign exchange and of much importance in the economic growth of the country. The export behaviour and trend analysis of any commodity has much importance from the point of view of country’s economy. A number of studies are there in literature with respect to export and trend analysis on different commodities; among these the studies conducted by Ajjan et al. (1998) on senna and periwinkle, Mandanna et al. (2002) on tobacco export, Sadavatti (2006) on Basmati rice, Umesh et al. (2005) and Velavan (2004) on cashew are few to mention. Cashew, a native of Eastern Brazil introduced to India by Portuguese, is one of the India’s foreign exchange earners and the second biggest dollar earner (CEPCI, 2012). India is the largest producer and exporter of cashew kernels in the world. During 2013-14 India constituted around 18 per cent of the cashew area and 17 per cent of the total production in the world. Over 65 per cent of the world export of cashew kernels is accounted for by India. In India, during 2013-14 cashew cultivation covers a total area of 9.8 lakh hectares, producing over 7.57 lakh tonnes of raw cashew nuts (Indiastat, 2014). Cashew cultivation is taken up in small and marginal holdings. As more than 70 per cent of the cashew area is under this category, cashew plays an important role in the development of small and marginal farmers in India. Cashew export is engine of employment and it provides employment to about one million workers, 95 per cent of which are rural women from the under privileged sections of the society (Cashew Bulletin, 2010). During 2013-14 India exported one lakh tonnes of cashew kernals worth of 4046.23 crores. With changing production, consumption and food habits, export of cashew from India is also changing its direction. Thus, for sustainability in export of cashew from India is required to be studied. Forecasting of cashew export is also important in this aspect. With these importances this study attempts to examine the growth, Instability and direction of export of cashew from India. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The study is based on time series data on area, production, productivity, export quantity and export value of cashew in India. The data was collected from various published issues of National Horticulture Board and APEDA for 20 years from 1994-95 to 2013-14. The country-wise export of India’s cashew were collected for a period of ten years from 2004-05 to 2013-14. Analysis of Growth : For estimating Compound Growth Rate, the total period was divided into two periods viz., Period I (1994-95 to 2003-04) and Period II (2004-05 to 2013-14). This would enable comparison of growth and export performance of cashew between two periods. The compound growth rates were estimated for period I, period II and for the overall period by using the exponential growth function of the form Y = a b t e t where, Y = area, production, production, export quantity, value and unit value of cashew t = time variable e t = Error term ‘a’ and ‘b’ are unknown constants to be estimated The unknown constants ‘a’ and ‘b’ were found by Progressive Research – An International Journal Society for Scientific Development Print ISSN : 0973-6417, Online ISSN : 2454-6003 in Agriculture and Technology Volume 11 (Special-I) : 526-530 (2016) Meerut (U.P.) INDIA