A SIMULATION STUDY OF INTERVENTIONS TO REDUCE APPOINTMENT LEAD-TIME AND PATIENT
NO-SHOW RATE
Ronald E. Giachetti
Dept. of Industrial & Systems Engineering
10555 W. Flagler Street
Miami, FL 33174, U.S.A.
ABSTRACT
A problem in health care is the lengthy waiting time for
patients to receive an appointment. Long appointment de-
lays cause patient dissatisfaction with the health care clin-
ic and also has clinical ramifications. Long appointment
delays are also found to increase patient no-shows, which
further wastes medical resources and leads to a decrease
in clinical care. A model of the health care clinic is built
to understand the casual relationships in the system con-
tributing to the problem. The model is used to investigate
two possible policies. A policy of eliminating multiple
appointment types can be effective in reducing appoint-
ment delay and as a consequent no-shows. Using data
from several clinics, our study also suggests that an effec-
tive policy is to segregate habitual no-show patients and
double-book them whenever they make appointments.
This policy is equally effective as general overbooking
without penalizing the entire patient population.
1 INTRODUCTION
Many clinics suffer from two related problems. First, is
the long waiting time, which we will call appointment de-
lay, until the next available appointment. Appointment
delay is part of what the Institute of Medicine calls time-
liness, and was identified as a primary area needing im-
provement (Institute_of_Medicine 1996). Second, is the
high incident of no-shows in many clinics. No-shows are
patients who do not appear for their scheduled appoint-
ment, thus wasting resources of the clinic by denying the
opportunity of using that appointment slot for other pa-
tients.
To deal with these problems clinics try various inter-
ventions. In some cases the interventions work, in other
cases they fail. What is lacking in the literature is a full
and clear understanding of the relationships between pa-
tient demand, patient behavior, clinic capacity, and clini-
cal policies. Many of the components have been studied
individually, but unless models are built of the entire sys-
tem practitioners will fail to see how their decisions affect
other system aspects. Moreover, most analytical and si-
mulation models treat patient behavior as unaffected by
clinical policies. The lack of representing human behav-
ior in response to system policy decisions misses signifi-
cant feedback influencing overall performance.
In this paper, system dynamics simulation is used to
model the feedback between clinic interventions and pa-
tient demand behavior. We draw upon known behaviors
in queueing theory as well as what has been determined
from empirical studies of clinical practices. We develop a
model that relates patient demand, patient behavior, clinic
capacity, and clinic policies to understand how clinical
interventions can influence patient behavior. The result-
ing model is used to evaluate various interventions under
some basic assumptions of clinic operations. An analysis
of the policies is presented, which is followed by conclu-
sions and suggestions for future research.
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
In the UK and Europe the waiting list for patients to see
health care providers is a political and social issue that has
received wide attention from the research community.
Clearly, the waiting list is a queue, and some studies have
analyzed it from this perspective (Worthington 1987).
Wolstenholme (1993) uses system dynamics to show how
the waiting list grows due to the implementation of a na-
tional policy change. Coyle (1984) creates a model to
show how admissions policies and treatment durations
can cause the waiting list to grow by recycling patients.
Van Ackere and Smith (1999) analyze policies and their
effect on the waiting list at the national level in the UK;
González-Busto and García (1999) do a similar study for
Spain. These studies underline the need to consider feed-
back between policy decisions and their affect on system
performance, in this case the length of the waiting list.
In the US, where there is no national health care sys-
tem, there are far fewer studies of waiting for appoint-
ments, hereafter called appointment delay. There is more
1463 978-1-4244-2708-6/08/$25.00 ©2008 IEEE
Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference
S. J. Mason, R. R. Hill, L. Mönch, O. Rose, T. Jefferson, J. W. Fowler eds.