The Professional Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute PREPRINT This preprint is a PDF of a manuscript that has been accepted for publication in Earthquake Spectra. It is the final version that was uploaded and approved by the author(s). While the paper has been through the usual rigorous peer review process for the Journal, it has not been copyedited, nor have the figures and tables been modified for final publication. Please also note that the paper may refer to online Appendices that are not yet available. We have posted this preliminary version of the manuscript online in the interest of making the scientific findings available for distribution and citation as quickly as possible following acceptance. However, readers should be aware that the final, published version will look different from this version and may also have some differences in content. The DOI for this manuscript and the correct format for citing the paper are given at the top of the online (html) abstract. Once the final, published version of this paper is posted online, it will replace the preliminary version at the specified DOI.