Oil at Risk: Estimates the Impact of Violent Hotelling Pressures from Terrorism on Petroleum Production among Middle East and North African National Monopolies Ryan K. Merrill and Anthony W. Orlando* October 5, 2016 What effect does the threat of expropriation have on resource extraction? Much of the economic literature suggests that uncertainty reduces investment, but the Green Paradox theory suggests the opposite. In this paper, we test this theory in the context of terrorism, which poses a real threat of violent expropriation of property rights. Facing this uncertainty, we find that oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa increase their extraction rate, especially in response to more severe terrorist attacks, as measured by victim deaths. This finding has important negative consequences for the world in terms of climate change and demonstrates a previously untested mechanism through which exhaustible resource supply is flooding the market. *University of Southern California. Merrill can be reached at ryanmerr@usc.edu and Orlando can be reached at aorlando@usc.edu. This paper is an early draft. Not for distribution. PLEASE DO NOT CITE. All errors are the authors’ alone.