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State Fiscal Policies for Budget
Stabilization and Economic Growth:
A Dynamic Scoring Analysis
John Merrifield and Barry W. Poulson
Economic downturns expose unsustainable fiscal practices.
Widespread fiscal crises create opportunities to compare policy
options that address especially adverse circumstances, especially pro-
growth fiscal constraints that can stabilize state budgets over the busi-
ness cycle. Our policy option assessments depart from the normal
practice of assessing rules and policies independently. Our premise is
that the fiscal policy mix determines its outcomes. We include
dynamic scoring to provide a richer view of the policy interactions.
In this article, we assess reforms that address fiscal stress issues.
We were driven, in part, by our conviction that stable spending
growth over the business cycle curbs fiscal stress-induced pressures
to raise taxes and weaken caps on spending growth. To generalize our
findings as much as possible, we apply our dynamic scoring model to
California, Montana, and Utah—states familiar to us that span the
blue state–red state gamut, with Montana in the middle. Utah is
“famously conservative” (Woo 2010), with one of the top business tax
climates (Tax Foundation 2011). California’s response to fiscal stress
included large tax hikes, which helped create one of the worst busi-
ness climates. With fiscal data and dynamic scoring, we simulate the
economic growth and fiscal effects of income tax rate reductions and
Cato Journal, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Winter 2014). Copyright © Cato Institute. All rights
reserved.
John Merrifield is Professor of Economics at the University of Texas-San Antonio
(Downtown Campus). Barry Poulson is Professor of Economics Emeritus at the
University of Colorado-Boulder.