Examining the Efficiency and Reach of Open and Distance Education for Secondary Education in India: Econometric Analysis of Student Data from National Institute of Open School (NIOS) Shreekanth Mahendiran Centre for Budget and Policy Studies shreekanth@cbps.in Neha Ghatak Centre for Budget and Policy Studies neha@cbps.in Dr. Jyotsna Jha Centre for Budget and Policy Studies director@cbps.in Abstract Open and Distance Learning (ODL) for secondary and higher secondary education in India is offered by National Institute of Open Schooling (NIOS) and State Open Schools (SOS) at the national and state level respectively. NIOS and SOS have the same vision of reaching out to the disadvantaged sections and contribute towards expansion of secondary education. In this paper, we deal with the following questions: (a) Who accesses the ODL system to pursue their secondary and higher secondary education; and (b) Does the flexibility offered, in terms of the five year duration allowed to complete the course, result in higher probability of completion? We examine these questions using Learners data from NIOS at All- India level, for the period 2008-2013. The raw student data of NIOS is not in the public domain and therefore has been analyzed for the first time. We use an ordinal logit model to estimate the probability of completion to understand whether the flexibility to complete in five year leads to higher completion rates by using NIOS data in conjunction with data from other national level large surveys such as National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) and District Information on School Education (DISE). The estimates reveal a decreasing trend in probability of completion, where the highest probability is observed in the first year at about 22 per cent. In addition to total learners, we carry out disaggregated analysis for gender and for social groups, and conclude that the flexibility of five years has only marginal effect on completion rates. Introduction In India, NIOS was established in 1989 with the mission to provide relevant, continuing, holistic education to the most marginalised sections of the society for equity and social justice. 1 The enrolment in secondary and senior secondary levels in NIOS has increased from 3,13,922 in 2008 to 4,29,726 in 2013. This growth in enrolment, about 6.15 per cent per year, is impressive especially since it is not concentrated in one or two states but is dispersed across the country. In 2008, Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh constituted 50 per cent of the enrolment in NIOS, wherein that concentration has reduced to 36 per cent by 2013 primarily due to increase in enrolment in states such as Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Jharkhand. 2 In recognizing the importance of NIOS in providing quality education, the Ministry of Human Resource and Development (MHRD) in its draft of New Education Policy (2016) has mentioned initiatives to revamp the Open and Distance Learning system (ODL) to achieve enhanced access, developing skills, capacity building, training, employability and life-long learning (MHRD, 2016). Therefore, at this juncture, it is important to examine the efficiency of the NIOS to increase its reach to the disadvantaged sections and contribute towards expansion of secondary education. In this paper, we examine the reach and efficiency of the NIOS system and the idea of accessibility through two primary questions - i) who accesses the NIOS to pursue their secondary and higher secondary education and ii) Does the flexibility offered, in terms of the five year duration allowed to complete the courses, result in higher probability of course completion? These have been examined by using raw learners’ data from NIOS for the period 2008-2013; this is the first such analysis of this data to our knowledge. The paper is structured as follows: (a) brief introduction to the features of NIOS; (b) defining efficiency in the educational system context, especially NIOS; (c) description of methods used and its limitations; (d) discussion of results; and (e) finally conclude with discussion on whether the system is working efficiently. Institutional Context - NIOS: NIOS primarily offers three kinds of courses: Secondary, Senior Secondary and Vocational. At secondary, a learner can opt from a pool of seventeen languages and ten additional subjects 3 ; and a learner at senior secondarycan chose between four languages and seventeen subjects 4 . The curriculum offered by NIOS is intended for self-learning; a provision for Personal Contact Programmes (PCP) has been included to facilitate the learning process. These are subject wise classes held at the Study Centres, known as Accredited Institutes (AIs) and Accredited Vocational Institutes (AVIs). 1 Accessed from NIOS website www.nios.ac.in as on August 28th 2016. 2 From 2008, Kerala, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Jharkhand have increased its enrolment by 40 per cent per year. 3 For Certification (Secondary and Senior Secondary) , a minimum of five subjects including at-least one language or at-most two languages are compulsory.