ORIGINAL PAPER Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Lake Van basin, Turkey Levent Selcuk • Azad Saglam Selcuk • Turgay Beyaz Received: 16 October 2008 / Accepted: 2 March 2010 / Published online: 18 March 2010 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010 Abstract The seismic hazard for the Lake Van basin is computed using a probabilistic approach, along with the earthquake data from 1907 to present. The spatial distribution of seismic events between the longitudes of 41–45° and the latitudes of 37.5–40°, which encompasses the region, indicates distinct seismic zones. The positions of these zones are well aligned with the known tectonic features such as the Tutak-C ¸ aldıran fault zone, the O ¨ zalp fault zone, the Gevas ¸ fault zone, the Bitlis fault zone and Karlıova junction where the North Anatolian fault zone and East Anatolian fault zone meet. These faults are known to have generated major earthquakes which strongly affected cities and towns such as Van, Mus ¸, Bitlis, O ¨ zalp, Muradiye, C ¸ aldıran, Ercis ¸, Adilcevaz, Ahlat, Tatvan, Gevas ¸ and Gu ¨rpınar. The recurrence intervals of M s C 4 earthquakes were evaluated in order to obtain the parameters of the Gutenberg–Richter measurements for seismic zones. More importantly, iso-acceleration maps of the basin were produced with a grid interval of 0.05 degrees. These maps are developed for 100- and 475- year return periods, utilizing the domestic attenuation relationships. A computer program called Sistehan II was utilized to generate these maps. Keywords Lake Van Basin  Peak ground acceleration  Probabilistic approach  Return period L. Selcuk (&)  A. S. Selcuk Architectural-Engineering Faculty, Department of Geological Engineering, Yuzuncu Yil University, 65080 Van, Turkey e-mail: lselcuk@hotmail.com A. S. Selcuk e-mail: azadsaglam@gmail.com T. Beyaz School of Engineering, Department of Geological Engineering, Pamukkale University, 20017 Kinikli, Denizli, Turkey e-mail: tbeyaz@pau.edu.tr 123 Nat Hazards (2010) 54:949–965 DOI 10.1007/s11069-010-9517-6