Research Article
Reliability Analysis of Bus Timetabling Strategy during the
COVID-19 Epidemic: A Case Study of Yixing, China
Liangpeng Gao ,
1
Yue Zheng ,
2
Yanjie Ji ,
3
Chenghong Fu ,
1
and Lihai Zhang
4
1
Institute of Transportation, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou, Fujian, China
2
School of Modern Posts and Institute of Modern Posts, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,
Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
3
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
4
Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia
CorrespondenceshouldbeaddressedtoYueZheng;zhengyue_seu@163.com
Received 13 December 2020; Revised 15 January 2021; Accepted 22 January 2021; Published 15 February 2021
AcademicEditor:TingsongWang
Copyright © 2021 Liangpeng Gao et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution
License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is
properly cited.
Howtomeetthedailydemandforresidenttransportwhilelimitingthetransmissionofinfectiousdiseasesisaproblemofsocial
responsibilityofurbantransportsystemsduringmajorpublichealthemergencies.Consideringthenovelcoronaviruspneumonia
epidemic(COVID-19),abustimetablesystembasedonthe“ifearly,wait,andiflate,leavesoon”strategyisproposed.Basedon
publictransportvehicleconstraintsinthissystem,theconceptofreliabilityisintroducedtoevaluatepublictransporttimetable
systems,andamodelbasedonaneventtreeisbuilttocalculatethefailurerateofurbanbustimetables.en,thepublictransport
situationinYixingcityisusedasanexampletoperformconfirmatoryanalysis,andthefluctuationsinthereliabilityofthebus
timetableduringthenovelcoronaviruspneumoniaepidemicarediscussed.eresearchresultsshowthatthemethodproposedin
thispapercanobtaintheoverallfailurerateofurbanbustimetablebytraversingthecalculationofeachround-tripintervaland
achieveanaccurateevaluationofthereliabilityofbustimetables.Duringtheearly,middle,andmorerecentstagesoftheCOVID-
19 outbreak, the failure rate of bus timetables in Yixing city initially decreased and then increased. In the early stage of the
outbreak,thefailurerateoftheYixingbustimetablewas7.8142.However,thefailureratedecreasedto4.3306and5.0160inthe
middleandlatestagesoftheepidemic,respectively.Inotherwords,thefailurerateofthepublictransportnetworkinthemiddle
and late stages decreased by 44.58% and 35.81%, respectively, compared with that in the early stage. us, during major health
emergencies,suchasthenovelcoronaviruspneumoniaoutbreak,thereliabilityoftheurbanbustimetablesystemcanbeimproved
byatleast35%,andcross-infectionatbusstationscanbeprevented.eresearchresultsverifythefeasibilityandreliabilityofthe
implementation of bus timetabling strategies during major health emergencies.
1. Introduction
Major epidemics involving infectious diseases are serious
publichealtheventsthatcanleadtothespreadofinfection
sourcesacrossregionsandbordersandposeathreattothe
safetyofallhumanbeings[1,2].Takingeffectivemeasuresto
prevent, control, and eliminate the outbreak of major in-
fectious diseases can not only reduce the degree of social
harm caused and ensure the safety of individuals and
property but also help maintain regional public order and
promote harmonious social communication.
Since novel coronavirus pneumonia emerged in late
December 2019, the COVID-19 epidemic has spread to
manycountriesandregionsaroundtheworldandhashada
critical impact on individuals’ daily life, security stability,
and socioeconomic status. rough early June 2020, the
COVID-19 disease, which has been reported in 188 coun-
tries/regions,hadledto420,000deaths,andover7.5million
Hindawi
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 2021, Article ID 6688236, 14 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6688236