110 Volume 14 • Number 2 • 2019 • IJSF International Journal of Sport Finance, 2019, 14, 110–126, © 2019, West Virginia University Which Countries Bid for the Olympic Games? Te Role of Economic, Political, Social, and Sports Determinants Wolfgang Maennig1 and Christopher Vierhaus1 1University of Hamburg Wolfgang Maennig is a professor of economic policy in the Department of Economics at the University of Hamburg. His research interests include sports economics, urban economics, and real estate economics. Christopher Vierhaus is a PhD student at the Department of Economics at the University of Hamburg. His research focuses on sports economics, particularly the economics of the Olympic Games. Abstract Tis study adds to the debate about the relationship between the Olympic Games and socio-economic factors. It is the frst empirical work testing if economic, political, and social determinants (as well as the prospects of success) help to forecast which countries will submit an Olympic bid to the International Olympic Committee (IOC). On the basis of the biddings for the eight Summer Olympic Games from 1992 to 2020, we fnd that countries recording larger eco- nomic growth are more likely to bid. Also, Olympic bids are more probable from nations with stable election results, recent improvements in health standards, and more international tourism arrivals. Finally, countries at least implicit- ly assess their chances of winning the Olympic host city election when considering a bid. Keywords: Olympic Games; socio-economic changes; mega-events; bidding countries; decision making; sports fore- casting JEL Classifcation: R58, L83, Z2 https://doi.org/10.32731/IJSF.142.052019.04 Introduction Te socio-economic impacts and legacies of hosting the Olympic Games have been widely analyzed, with the vast ma- jority of economists not able to confrm signifcant benefts (Baade & Matheson, 2016; Feddersen & Maennig, 2013a, 2013b; Hotchkiss, Moore, & Zobay, 2003; Jasmand & Maennig, 2008; Porter & Fletcher, 2008). Recently, Rose and Spiegel (2011) and Brückner and Pappa (2015) found signifcantly growing exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita associated with the Summer Olympics, even with unsuccessful bid countries. Tey found that, among other variables, an Olympic dummy has efects on economic variables like GDP per capita and export that are signifcantly diferent from zero. However, challenged by earlier studies that found no signifcant impact on major economic variables, they interpreted their results as a signal efect for a liberalization process in the bidding countries, which stimulated the local economy or may do so in the future. Te results of their research may be due to a sample selection bias or an omitted variable bias (Langer, Maennig, & Richter, 2017; Maennig & Richter, 2012). Also, their interpretation implied a reverse hypothesis of liberalization as well as (realized and anticipated) competitiveness leading to bidding for the Olympic Games, although they used GDP and exports as endogenous and Olympic bids as well as other determinants as exogenous.1 We are not aware of studies that use the (probability of) Olympic bids as endogenous and economic variables like GDP and exports as exogenous in order to isolate the determinants that lead countries to bid for the Olympics. We aim to contribute to closing this research gap. Consequently, the objectives of this empirical study are to identify the economic, political, social, touristic, infrastructural, or Olympics and sports determinants that explain why countries bid for the Olympic Games and what discriminates bidding from non-bidding countries. We fnd that countries recording larger economic growth are more likely to bid. Also, Olympic bids are more probable from nations with stable election results, recent improvements in health standards, and more international tourism arrivals. Finally, the chances of winning the host city election determine the submission of an Olympic bid.