J Syst Sci Syst Eng (Sep 2015) 24(3):276-292 ISSN: 1004-3756 (Paper) 1861-9576 (Online) DOI: 10.1007/s11518-015-5276-y CN11-2983/N A DYNAMIC ALLOCATION MODEL FOR MEDICAL RESOURCES IN THE CONTROL OF INFLUENZA DIFFUSION Ming Liu 1 Zhe Zhang 1 Ding Zhang 2 1 Department of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China liuming@njust.edu.cn() zhangzhe@njust.edu.cn 2 School of Business, State University of New York, Oswego, NY 13126, United States ding.zhang@oswego.edu Abstract In this paper, we develop a unique time-varying forecasting model for dynamic demand of medical resources based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) influenza diffusion model. In this forecasting mechanism, medical resources allocated in the early period will take effect in subduing the spread of influenza and thus impact the demand in the later period. We adopt a discrete time-space network to describe the medical resources allocation process following a hypothetical influenza outbreak in a region. The entire medical resources allocation process is constructed as a multi-stage integer programming problem. At each stage, we solve a cost minimization sub-problem subject to the time-varying demand. The corresponding optimal allocation result is then used as an input to the control process of influenza spread, which in turn determines the demand for the next stage. In addition, we present a comparison between the proposed model and an empirical model. Our results could help decision makers prepare for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources dynamically. Keywords: Time-varying demand, medical resources, influenza diffusion, time-space network 1. Introduction A serious influenza can test the ability of a nation to effectively protect its population, to reduce human loss and to rapidly recover. Meanwhile, it can also cause a great economic loss. For example, during the period from 1997 to 2002, more than 3,400,000 chickens were killed in Hong Kong, to prevent the avian influenza from transmitting to human. Generally, it is difficult to predict when an unexpected influenza outbreaks, and our security measures against such problem rest largely on consequence management, i.e., what can be done after the influenza outbreak occurs? How to ensure the supply of medical resources so that the efficiency of medical care can be maximized? Unfortunately, the available medical resources in the control of influenza are usually limited. Therefore, government decision makers must understand how the influenza spreads and then determine how to allocate the limited medical resources. Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015