Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: A methodology and a South African case study Tom van der Voorn a, *, Claudia Pahl-Wostl a , Jaco Quist b a University of Osnabru ¨ck, Institute of Environmental Systems Research, Barbarastr. 12, D49069 Osnabru ¨ck, Germany b Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management, Delft University of Technology, P.O. Box 5015, 2600 GA, Delft, The Netherlands 1. Future challenges of climate adaptation Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, calling for the development and use of sophisticated futures approaches. The impacts of global climate change will continue to manifest themselves locally, albeit at a varying rate and magnitude. The impacts of floods and droughts on social–ecological systems (SES) impose major challenges. In particular, flood prone deltaic and drought prone coastal regions with high concentrations of population and economic activity in major cities located in floodplains and along the coastline are seriously threatened [1,2]. Climate change adaptation and future planning have therefore become mandatory for environmental and climate policymakers [3]. As a consequence, futures and scenario studies are increasingly used in long-term climate policy and decision making and related methodology development is increasing. The term SES is used to emphasise interconnectedness of social and ecological systems through human and natural elements that are closely interacting and mutually constituting [4], which is also strongly the case in today’s rapidly changing and densely populated deltaic and coastal regions [5]. This integrated concept of humans in nature complicates assessing and predicting future exposure of societies to climate change [6]. Model-based climate impact assessment studies may improve our understanding of complex changes in SES that may be attributed to anthropogenically caused changes in the climate. Unfortunately, their explanatory capacity is rather limited for various reasons, as for instance argued by Berkhout et al. [7]. Firstly, they often generate simplified projections of future climate change. Aiming at complexity reduction, simulation models designed for forecasting future developments typically focus on a restricted subset of potential future conditions. This compromises the number of exposure units and climate change scenarios under study. Secondly, to Futures 44 (2012) 346–364 A R T I C L E I N F O Article history: Available online 1 December 2011 A B S T R A C T Developing adaptation strategies for deltaic and coastal regions is a major challenge, due to future uncertainties of climate change and complexity of the social–ecological systems to be managed. This paper investigates how desirable futures or normative scenarios approaches, in particular backcasting, can be used to develop more robust climate strategies in coastal regions. The paper develops a methodology in which participatory backcasting and adaptive management are combined, and its applicability is demon- strated for the Breede–Overberg coastal region in South Africa where a catchment management strategy has been developed. It is concluded that the methodology offers an adequate framework for developing and implementing long-term climate adaptation strategies and policies, including a transition management scheme for intermediate assessments. ß 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. * Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 0 541 696 3348; fax: +49 0 541 696 2368. E-mail address: tvanderv@uni-osnabrueck.de (T. van der Voorn). Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Futures jo u rn al ho m epag e: ww w.els evier.c o m/lo cat e/fu tu res 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2011.11.003