J. Math. Biol. (2011) 62:543–568
DOI 10.1007/s00285-010-0346-8 Mathematical Biology
A reaction–diffusion malaria model with incubation
period in the vector population
Yijun Lou · Xiao-Qiang Zhao
Received: 16 December 2009 / Revised: 1 April 2010 / Published online: 30 April 2010
© Springer-Verlag 2010
Abstract Malaria is one of the most important parasitic infections in humans and
more than two billion people are at risk every year. To understand how the spatial het-
erogeneity and extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the parasite within the mosquito
affect the dynamics of malaria epidemiology, we propose a nonlocal and time-delayed
reaction–diffusion model. We then define the basic reproduction ratio R
0
and show
that R
0
serves as a threshold parameter that predicts whether malaria will spread. Fur-
thermore, a sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee that the disease will stabilize
at a positive steady state eventually in the case where all the parameters are spatially
independent. Numerically, we show that the use of the spatially averaged system may
highly underestimate the malaria risk. The spatially heterogeneous framework in this
paper can be used to design the spatial allocation of control resources.
Keywords Malaria transmission · Spatial heterogeneity · Incubation period ·
Basic reproduction ratio · Threshold dynamics · Global attractivity
Mathematics Subject Classification (2000) 35K57 · 37N25 · 92D30
Supported in part by the NSERC of Canada and the MITACS of Canada.
Y. Lou (B ) · X.-Q. Zhao
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Memorial University of Newfoundland,
St. John’s, NL A1C 5S7, Canada
e-mail: yijunlou@hotmail.com; ylou@mun.ca
X.-Q. Zhao
e-mail: zhao@mun.ca
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