Research Paper Analysis of biomass feedstock availability and variability for the Peace River region of Alberta, Canada J.D. Stephen a, *, S. Sokhansanj a , X. Bi a , T. Sowlati b , T. Kloeck c , L. Townley-Smith d , M.A. Stumborg e a Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of British Columbia, 2360 East Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z3 Canada b Department of Wood Science, University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4 Canada c Bio-industrial Development Branch, Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development, 7000-113th Street, Edmonton, AB, T6H 5T6 Canada d Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 1800 Hamilton Street, Regina, SK, S4P 4L2 Canada e Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, PO Box 1030, Swift Current, SK, S9H 3X2 Canada article info Article history: Received 6 January 2009 Received in revised form 17 July 2009 Accepted 14 September 2009 Published online 12 November 2009 Biorefineries or other biomass-dependent facilities require a predictable, dependable feed- stock supplied over many years to justify capital investments. Determining inter-year vari- ability in biomass availability is essential to quantify the feedstock supply risk. Using a geographic information system (GIS) and historic crop yield data, average production was estimated for 10 sites in the Peace River region of Alberta, Canada. Four high-yielding potential sites were investigated for variability over a 20 year time frame (1980–2000). The range of availability was large, from double the average in maximum years to nothing in minimum years. Biomass availability is a function of grain yield, the biomass-to-grain ratio, the cropping frequency, and residue retention rate to ensure future crop productivity. Alternate feedstock sources must be identified to supply biomass processing facilities in low yield years. ª 2009 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Yearly variation in feedstock supply and cost is a major risk for many existing and planned biomass-based processing facilities. This is particularly true for businesses that rely upon annual crops, for which availability is dependent largely on single season growing conditions. Several reports and anal- yses have focused upon the ‘potential’ of biomass as a feed- stock for an ‘emerging bio-based economy’ (Wood and Layzell, 2003; Hoogwijk et al., 2005), but few have addressed the impact of year-to-year regional differences in availability on commercial viability of a biorefinery. Sokhansanj et al. (2006) calculated the average straw from the Canadian Prairies was slightly over 15 million tonnes (Mt), with a wide annual variation from 27.6 Mt to 2.3 Mt. Raw feedstock costs repre- sent 40–60% of the operating costs of a biomass processing facility (Caputo et al., 2005; Leistritz et al., 2007). Quantifying the potential risk of inadequate supply is critical to the long- term viability of biomass-based operations. Feedstock assessments have been conducted on a national scale. Matsumura et al. (2005) performed a resource assessment for rice straw and husk in Japan. These two types of biomass make up approximately 45% of the available agricultural resi- dues in the country. Elmore et al. (2008) used Moderate Reso- lution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat-sourced high- resolution landcover maps to determine rice crop residue availability in China. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectror- adiometer provided data on net primary productivity, and * Corresponding author. E-mail address: jstephen@jdsbiomass.com (J.D. Stephen). Available at www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/issn/15375110 1537-5110/$ – see front matter ª 2009 IAgrE. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2009.09.019 biosystems engineering 105 (2010) 103–111